(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

[Richard Bates]

A Cobra meeting this weekend for the four nations, so you’d imagine England will probably get some additional restrictions early next week. Maybe it’s the last weekend for chess for a while potentially.

There was a COBRA meeting yesterday. I doubt that restrictions in England are on the agenda for a U.K. based meeting. Whether more restrictions are a good idea or not, the political reality is that introducing new restrictions will probably mean Johnson being chucked out by his party by the end of next week. So seems unlikely, but you never know...

[J T Melsom]

Citation needed. There was recognition that the elder members of the chess community might be more cautious but don't recall suggestions that we should bar them. [it has though been a long time of endless debate, so i may be wrong]

There was spirited discussion within a club of which I am a member, but those conversations must be regarded as private.

The proponents claimed that this was a widely held idea, and it was indeed consistent with Government guidance, which was ( is? ) that the elderly should stay out of everyone's way. The exploitation of confusion between guidance and legal requirements has of course been one of their main weapons throught this period.

Thanks so basically a claim extrapolated from limited personal experience and not necessarily representative. There is rather a lot of that sort of evidence online, and obviously it should be treated with caution.

[Matt Bridgeman]

A Cobra meeting this weekend for the four nations, so you’d imagine England will probably get some additional restrictions early next week. Maybe it’s the last weekend for chess for a while potentially.

There was a COBRA meeting yesterday. I doubt that restrictions in England are on the agenda for a U.K. based meeting. Whether more restrictions are a good idea or not, the political reality is that introducing new restrictions will probably mean Johnson being chucked out by his party by the end of next week. So seems unlikely, but you never know...

Johnson certainly is in a total pickle with his party, but issues are mounting up. Strong suggestions PCR's will quickly become meaningless as Omicron overruns testing capacity, and early UK studies showing Omicron is no less severe than Delta being two of them. Something will probably have to give next week.

[Tim Spanton]

The latest S African verdict I've seen says omicron is in theory as strong as previous variants but in practice turns out to be much milder thanks to vaccination and immunity built up by previous infection

[Matt Bridgeman]

The latest S African verdict I've seen says omicron is in theory as strong as previous variants but in practice turns out to be much milder thanks to vaccination and immunity built up by previous infection

I thought Whitty explained why to take South Africa with a pinch of salt. Wasn’t it that Delta was their first wave and the population had no immunity, whereas with Omicron they have much higher immunity than the UK and a younger population.

[Tim Spanton]

Guardian has up-to-date info if you google:
"South Africa" Whitty covid

[Alan Walton]

From what I have been reading through multiple sources is that the current modelling is from Imperial University (aka lockdown Ferguson)

This is assuming that Omicron is identical to Delta except for the transmissibility rate; it also assumes the both Delta and Omicron run parallel in the community and neither becomes dominant, this data hasn't been peer reviewed in any way

JP Morgan did their own version adjusting Omicron for admission to hospital and length of stay in hospital down by 50%; this significantly reduced the figure of hospitalisations down from 106% to 33% (compared with last January admissions)

The SA data shows that Omicron has become dominant and is also significantly milder; some scientists are saying that there is significant snobbery in the scientific community and there are other agendas at play

[NickFaulks]

The latest S African verdict I've seen says omicron is in theory as strong as previous variants but in practice turns out to be much milder thanks to vaccination and immunity built up by previous infection

If an Imperial College model says I'm dead, but I'm not, how worried should I be?

[Matt Bridgeman]

Well London hospitalisations are up nearly 30% in the past 7 days, and leaked Sage documents suggest measures will be happening. It’s more whether they really wait till after Christmas Day or not; https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-off ... y-12498746

[Stephen Westmoreland]

I believe the next decision point (with better data) is today. The media are pushing stories about a two week (yeah right) circuit breaker, either in the next week or after Christmas. Johnson has announced restrictions on a Saturday before, so it depends on the mood in Government and if the PM feels lucky with his Backbenchers.

Fingers cross our Monday night impromptu chess club can go ahead. I am looking rather heavily at online options again and using ECF online once we have to shut.

[David Sedgwick]

Reverting to the subject of the next 4NCL weekend, dare I suggest that the arbiters might be allowed some say as to whether or not it should go ahead?

[Stewart Reuben]

If arbiters cannot be trusted to give an objective opinion of the data- then who can? That does not mean we are necessarily right.

[David Williams]

Why is it called a 'circuit breaker'?

A circuit breaker cuts off circulation completely. The problem is then fixed and circulation is restored. If the problem has not been fixed the circuit breaker cuts off circulation again.

If you apply that to covid it means every single infected person in the world has to remain completely isolated from everyone else for, say, two weeks. Meantime the whole world probably needs sanitising. Anything less means the virus remains. A two week circuit breaker in football would prevent footballers infecting each other, but sending them home to mix with their friends and family for two weeks before reconvening makes it completely ineffective.

[MartinCarpenter]

Why is it called a 'circuit breaker'?

A circuit breaker cuts off circulation completely. The problem is then fixed and circulation is restored. If the problem has not been fixed the circuit breaker cuts off circulation again.

If you apply that to covid it means every single infected person in the world has to remain completely isolated from everyone else for, say, two weeks. Meantime the whole world probably needs sanitising. Anything less means the virus remains. A two week circuit breaker in football would prevent footballers infecting each other, but sending them home to mix with their friends and family for two weeks before reconvening makes it completely ineffective.

You'd have to cull a lot of wild animals while you're at it

I think it was originally to distinguish it from a lockdown proper, in the sense that its 'guaranteed' to only last for 2 weeks rather than the month or two you would need to really squash community transmission?

Useless word to use this time, yes. What, I suppose, you'd be trying to do is to spread the massive wave of infections out over time & get a bit more booster protection in the population. Might somehow keep it under a level that the hospitals can survive.
(Although given how fast the ***** thing currently seems to spread it really isn't obvious.).

[NickFaulks]

Reverting to the subject of the next 4NCL weekend, dare I suggest that the arbiters might be allowed some say as to whether or not it should go ahead?

If arbiters are unwilling to officiate, then the event will not go ahead. That sounds like a lot of say to me.