Thanks for letting me know.Matt Bridgeman wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:22 pm
I'll PM you. But in old money, I suppose I'm not a massive believer in being able to improve from 170-ish level to cruising at 230-240+ type level 10 months later. Just seems a bit unlikely.
I think this debate here shows why we need cameras, screen shares, etc... as we end up in a world of constant suspicion, and the possible false positives. The measures are not only a good way to protect honest players from cheats, but also to protect them from suspicion.
Juniors do win against strong players and lose against weaker players, but such is chess. You normally have a 10% chance of beating someone 400 elo higher than you, and some of these juniors have been playing multiple thousands rapid games (it's insane, I don't know how they do it), and even more blitz (and don't get me started on the tens of thousands played on bullet..)
As an illustration, I'll talk about an OtB example of junior variability: one of the 2 current French big hopes, Marco Materia (already has a norm at 12), was rated 2163 FIDE (!!!) in the 2019 U10 championship. He finished 4th, because he lost and drew against 1500s and even a 1477 (!!!). See crosstable.
http://www.echecs.asso.fr/Resultats.asp ... &Action=Ga
At the same time, he was already beating masters. That was over the board chess. Beating masters and losing to 1400s.
A few coaches told me that strong juniors have very variable results, because they have not yet experienced enough games and positions, so can take radically wrong decisions in unfamiliar positions. They also have different behaviours and play styles when playing strong players than when playing their peers. Against weaker players, they have to push for the win and sometimes mess up their attack, while against stronger players they often just need to wait for the right tactic to show itself.
Compound:
- variability of results
- the fact that the ECF and Fide grades are not 10 months out of date, but more like 20+ months.
- the intense training they may have had during lockdown (not friends, not football, no holidays, just home with a computer.
- the sheer volume of games which increases the statistical chance they will beat titled players (also don't forget that even titled players make big blunders)
And it gives a plausible hypothesis that some juniors may have explainable performance.