2016 Candidates Moscow 10-29 March

[JustinHorton]

That swingometer:

[Angus French]

In Anand-Giri, Stockfish is giving a line after 45 Bd5 where all the pieces come off and Black loses his c and f-pawns. This leaves K + h pawn vs. K + gh pawns which I think may be a draw - or is it?

[JustinHorton]

However, Giri's played 45...Rf8 which as far as I see acquiesces to the draw.

[Mick Norris]

However, Giri's played 45...Rf8 which as far as I see acquiesces to the draw.

Gustafsson reckoned Rc5 would win and Rf8 will draw

He also reckons that Karjakin will hold the draw, so at least Giri not winning leaves the possibility of Vishy joining a 3 way tie after tomorrow (I am just hoping that Karjakin won't qualify, and looking for scenarios where Caruana doesn't have to beat him with black tomorrow)

[Matt Mackenzie]

But doesn't Anand lose out in that scenario?

And I'm not one of those who gets massively worked up about Karjakin's politics, tbh - IIRC he is an ethnic Russian from Crimea so having pro-Putin sympathies doesn't come as a massive shock really. And if we banished leading historic chess players with "dodgy" opinions.......

[JustinHorton]

Anand-Giri drawn, so Giri is out of it. (I don't think Anand is out of it unless Caruana manages to win.)

[Mick Norris]

But doesn't Anand lose out in that scenario?

Yes, to Caruana which is my point

[Jonathan Bryant]

Anand-Giri drawn, so Giri is out of it. (I don't think Anand is out of it unless Caruana manages to win.)

Has anybody worked out a table for a 7-player APA imagining that Toppy didn’t turn up. Literally didn’t turn up in a hypothetical world, I mean, as opposed to metaphorically as in the real one.

[Mick Norris]

Anand-Giri drawn, so Giri is out of it. (I don't think Anand is out of it unless Caruana manages to win.)

If Anand wins tomorrow, he gets to 8 points

If Caruana & Karjakin both draw today, they will be on 7.5, so if either win tomorrow they win outright with 8.5, or a draw leaves a 3 way tie on 8 with Anand, which Vishy loses on tiebreak

[Mick Norris]

Anand-Giri drawn, so Giri is out of it. (I don't think Anand is out of it unless Caruana manages to win.)

Has anybody worked out a table for a 7-player APA imagining that Toppy didn’t turn up. Literally didn’t turn up in a hypothetical world, I mean, as opposed to metaphorically as in the real one.

Topalov drew twice with Caruana & Svidler, so they would benefit - J'adoubeamura would lose his 2 wins

[JustinHorton]

If Caruana & Karjakin both draw today, they will be on 7.5, so if either win tomorrow they win outright with 8.5, or a draw leaves a 3 way tie on 8 with Anand, which Vishy loses on tiebreak

Yes, I was just concluding that I was actually wrong about Anand's chances surviving if Caruana doesn't win (though if Caruana drew but Karjakin lost, he wold still be alive).

Now I've demonstrated that I can't be relied on, am I right in thinking that if these two games (which I assume are going to go on for hours) were drawn, and then Anand won in the last round while the leaders drew, this would take the tie-break victory away from Karjakin and give it to Caruana?

[Mick Norris]

If Caruana & Karjakin both draw today, they will be on 7.5, so if either win tomorrow they win outright with 8.5, or a draw leaves a 3 way tie on 8 with Anand, which Vishy loses on tiebreak

Yes, I was just concluding that I was actually wrong about Anand's chances surviving if Caruana doesn't win (though if Caruana drew but Karjakin lost, he wold still be alive).

Now I've demonstrated that I can't be relied on, am I right in thinking that if these two games (which I assume are going to go on for hours) were drawn, and then Anand won in the last round while the leaders drew, this would take the tie-break victory away from Karjakin and give it to Caruana?

Yes

This is Rhys' scenario (like the NFL) where the leaders draw, and the tournament winner is determined by a long game between Svidler & Anand (fortunately, we can't have a Russian conspiracy of Svidler throwing his game to benefit Karjakin, not that he would do that)

[Mick Norris]

.. if these two games (which I assume are going to go on for hours) ...

Is anyone in time trouble?

[JustinHorton]

Caruana has a minute but only a move to play to get to the time control. Aronian is down to four minutes and presumably is on just that and increments, yes?

[Jonathan Bryant]

... am I right in thinking that if these two games (which I assume are going to go on for hours) were drawn, and then Anand won in the last round while the leaders drew, this would take the tie-break victory away from Karjakin and give it to Caruana?

Yes

This is Rhys' scenario (like the NFL) where the leaders draw, and the tournament winner is determined by a long game between Svidler & Anand ....

Wowser. Well if them’s the rules, them’s the rules and it’s what should happen. In the interests of full disclosure I should also say, I’m quite happy for 'anything that doesn’t lead to Karjakin qualifying' to happen.

However, this is a pretty good example of why (some) folk believe that determining a qualifier by a single tournament is not satisfactory. As would be Caruana botching his chance against the several-country-miles-behind-everybody-else back marker while Karjakin took his having a decisive influence on first place.

Them’s the rules but it’s not altogether cool bananas. Not quite in the same territory as determining world cup qualification based on who gives San Marino the biggest kicking, but it’s on the way.


3 rounds of matches simply not a practical solution right now though. Perhaps they wouldn’t be desirable even if they were.