2016 Candidates Moscow 10-29 March

[Mick Norris]

J'adoubeamura can reach 7.5, but Karjakin (7) and Caruana (7) play each other in the last round, so they would need to draw after both having lost to only reach 7.5

They have both beaten him, though, so the head to head means he can't win in a 3 way tie

In a 4 way tie with Anand too, he's beaten Vishy, but that's not enough

5 way ties don't help him either

[JustinHorton]

I think you're misunderstanding the betting rules. This isn't about being the winner after tiebreaks.

I'd have to be, I think. What impression are you under?

[Rhys Cumming]

+2 - Karjakin (3 wins) & Caruana (2 wins)
+1 - Anand (4 wins, but worse head to head with Caruana and equal head to head with Karjakin)
0 - Aronian (2 wins), Svidler (1 win) & Giri (12 draws)

A 2 way tie between Karjakin & Caruana will favour the former, unless Caruana loses to Svidler, Karjakin beats Aronian, and then Caruana beats Karjakin (which gives Caruana a better head to head)

A 3 way tie between Caruana, Karjakin & Anand will favour Caruana (who beat Anand) unless it comes about by Karjakin beating Caruana (in which case Karjakin qualifies)

Feel free to check this, it has been a long day

I don't want to think about Giri, Svidler and Aronian each winning their last 2 games and what happens if Karjakin-Caruana is a draw, let alone if it isn't

This may result in an interesting scenario in the final round that occassionally occurs in the NFL. If Caruana and Karjakin are on the same score after 14 rounds and Svidler-Anand is the last game going, then the result of this game may determine the champion despite neither Anand or Svidler being able to win. (Caruana would want Anand to win to ensure a 3-way tie, while Karjakin would want Svidler to win or draw so that it is only a 2 way tie.)

This is all assuming that the relevent games tomorrow are drawn, but I'm sure there are similar scenarios that could occur in other ways.

[JustinHorton]

The real excitement will be if there's a chance of it being decided by S/B, with a couple of games to go.

[Mick Norris]

The real excitement will be if there's a chance of it being decided by S/B, with a couple of games to go.

I don't think it can be, as S/B is the third tiebreak, and either the first (head to head) or second (number of wins) will be decisive

[JustinHorton]

You mean we can actually keep up with pen and paper?

[Mick Norris]

You mean we can actually keep up with pen and paper?

yes

TWIC round 12 report

Round 13 pairings Sunday 27th March 1pm GMT: Caruana-Svidler, Aronian-Karjakin, Topalov-Nakamura, Anand-Giri.

If Caruana & Karjakin lost, we would have them tied with Svidler & Aronian on 7, then have either Anand ahead on 7.5, or a 5 way tie with Anand or Giri (assuming Giri finally won a game) - that would be fun

Actually in that very unlikely scenario, if Anand-Giri was a draw, then Giri beat Topalov and the other 3 last round games were drawn, you would have a 6 way tie for first

[MartinCarpenter]

They could have another tournament to settle the tie

It is actually very slightly odd there isn't a play off of some sort - seemingly common nowadays in events where it matters much less! - but whatever so long as its fair enough.

[MJMcCready]

It's getting exciting now.

[NickFaulks]

I think you're misunderstanding the betting rules. This isn't about being the winner after tiebreaks.

I'd have to be, I think. What impression are you under?

"Dead heat rules apply". This means that if Naka were in a five way tie for first place, which is possible, then you would get paid out at 30/1.

[Mick Norris]

They could have another tournament to settle the tie

It is actually very slightly odd there isn't a play off of some sort - seemingly common nowadays in events where it matters much less! - but whatever so long as its fair enough.

14 rounds is enough as they must be knackered but a different tiebreak would be good

[Ian Thompson]

I think you're misunderstanding the betting rules. This isn't about being the winner after tiebreaks.

I'd have to be, I think. What impression are you under?

"Dead heat rules apply". This means that if Naka were in a five way tie for first place, which is possible, then you would get paid out at 30/1.

It's actually slightly worse than that. You stake would be divided in two - 1/5 of your stake would be a winning bet at 150/1; 4/5 of your stake would be a losing bet, so you'd only get 1/5 of your total stake money returned.

[JustinHorton]

I think you're misunderstanding the betting rules. This isn't about being the winner after tiebreaks.

I'd have to be, I think. What impression are you under?

"Dead heat rules apply". This means that if Naka were in a five way tie for first place, which is possible, then you would get paid out at 30/1.

Ah OK. Thanks very much. (I'm not surprised I missed the meaning of that, I dn't think I've placed a bet since the year began with 1.) That makes a lot of the prices even less attractive than they appear, doesn't it?

[NickFaulks]

You stake would be divided in two - 1/5 of your stake would be a winning bet at 150/1; 4/5 of your stake would be a losing bet, so you'd only get 1/5 of your total stake money returned.

If you bet £5 you get £151 back, so yes. I kept it simple, but obviously should have known better.

[NickFaulks]

That makes a lot of the prices even less attractive than they appear, doesn't it?

That depends on what else you think they might mean. In fact there's no other basis on which they make sense.

In general, I must say that I find Marathon's prices and service pretty good.