Yet More Deflation

[Brian Valentine]

Roger,
Thanks for setting out your reconciliation. Of course your version always made more sense!

In passing, the V2 download in both zipped and unzipped versions has 11,627 rows, not that this changes much.

We have information on about half (11626-10074-230) as they are on the list. Most are juniors, but the foreign players point will clearly weaken my argument. The London Classic may have been over 7 rounds, but the FIDE Open over 9 rounds would be representative for more foreign players.

I have a model which projects forward the grades on the assumption that category movements (including exits and new entrants) and average improvements by category continue identically to the current year. On 2009 assumptions this model projected continued deflation, however on this years parameters deflation continues 2 more years, then inflation begins to emerge. In both years grades tend to converge not disperse, so I need to find the mechanism for the emerging dispersion before I am prepared to accept that it might be a useful model. Nevertheless it might suggest that we should not get to hung up on the deflation evidenced this year.

[Roger de Coverly]

In passing, the V2 download in both zipped and unzipped versions has 11,627 rows, not that this changes much.

Quite right - I had managed to lose the last 2.

The London Classic may have been over 7 rounds,

Next July though, we will we know what grade the ECF system gives to the world's highest rated player.

[Brian Valentine]

Carlsen achieved 280 over his 7 games including 5 against those appearing in the 2009 list grossed up by the new entrant process, Kramnick scored 273. I bet they'd be chuffed, if they knew this!

These 2 should be graded in 2011 and would have increased the average list grading by .03 in 2010 if their 7 games was enough for inclusion. So one solution to the deflation issue would be a bigger London Chess Classic with strong ungraded players added.