English Chess Forum

Any bets on a fourth prime minister before the year is out?

(I resisted the temptation to post in the 'Iain Norman Macleod and #Krazy' thread, as this really deserves its own thread.)

The parallels with 1936 (the year of three kings) is startling, as are the parallels with the politics of the 1930s, the only exception being the lack of any real impetus towards a National Government this time round (there were four National Governments in the 1930s, starting in 1931 prompted by the Great Depression).

I believe that there have been 62 different years in which we have had at least two monarchs since Egbert in 827, so not such a rare happening.

And no fewer than 4 Chancellors of the Exchequer (so far)

Even now, its unlikely there will be another PM after the next one in 2022. But a bet on 4 in 12 months might be worth a flutter, even with no GE.

The Great Offices of State are not what they used to be...

The timeline here shows the four Chancellors in 2022 quite well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancello ... r#Timeline

I was struggling to remember who the current Foreign Secretary is yesterday evening (only two in 2022).

Three Home Secretaries. Revolving door politics. Puts a strain on the Civil Service too.

So that is 12 different holders of the four Great Offices of State in 2022 (and some will change again with a new PM).

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 3:28 pm

Puts a strain on the Civil Service too.

You mean they might forget which Minister it is they are trying to undermine.

The title of the thread seems to be making an assumption, as there is a possibility there will only be two P.M.s in 2022. (I see BJ is currently 3-1 with some bookmakers.)

I am trying hard to ignore that possibility. Theresa May sometimes touted as well. And we are all still 'Ready for Rishi' apparently.

Starmer making clear his view that Johnson was "unfit for office".

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:17 pm

And we are all still 'Ready for Rishi'

A small but important correction, it's:

Ready for Rishi!

Nick Burrows wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:40 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:17 pm

And we are all still 'Ready for Rishi'

A small but important correction, it's:

Ready for Rishi!

More apposite would be

"Ready for Fishi?"

If Liz had wanted to garner some respect for her term then she should have gone to the King and requested a dissolution of Parliament.

I'm sure some of her colleagues would have respected that and it would have flat footed almost all commentators and pundits.

John Upham wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:02 pm

If Liz had wanted to garner some respect for her term then she should have gone to the King and requested a dissolution of Parliament.

I'm sure some of her colleagues would have respected that.

True (though not the ones that lost their seats)!

Truss would also have been finished as a politician (at least in the Conservative Party). Arguable she is still finished anyway.

If she had done that, would the Conservative Party have booted her out like the Labour Party did for Ramsay Macdonald when he led a government in the 'national interest'? I am also trying to see Truss doing a Ramsay Macdonald, but I just can't see that.

The threshold for nomination is relatively high. Hopefully there will be a unity candidate. But in some ways it might be better if not, as then the calls for a general election will grow even louder.

Truss took longer to be elected than to govern.

There would be no "calls for a general election" if Johnson won the contest. He has a mandate from the British public, having won an election by a sizeable margin. Let's see if he runs.

There will be calls for a general election whoever wins, and, if anything, bringing Johnson back would probably intensify them.

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:12 pm

Truss took longer to be elected than to govern.

Arguably, a mayfly lives longer than truss actually "governed".

John Townsend wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:33 pm

There would be no "calls for a general election" if Johnson won the contest.

But could he assemble a Cabinet willing to go round the media circuit and tell utterly transparent lies for him every morning, which would be their only real job? That was the problem last time.

Labour and the Conservatives between them have set a precedent that "mandates", to the extent that they're part of our political system at all, come a distant second to partisan advantage when deciding when to hold an election. It's going to be January 2024.