Start Date of Next Lockdown?

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NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:26 am

David Gilbert wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:08 am
Nick the 2019/20 Adult Critical Care data is here https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-informa ... ty/2019-20.
David,
The question under discussion is the data which the Government will use as justification for locking us down again in a few weeks. You accused me of lying when I said the hospitalisation statistics relating to ICU beds occupied by fully vaccinated Covid patients are not made available.

Surely is it obvious that statistics for the year ending 31.3.2020 are not what I had in mind.
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NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:07 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:50 pm
I think this gives at least a partial answer to your question

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-val ... d-12359317

But I cannot imagine you are remotely interested
That was indeed an interesting story, which caught the attention of the Americans.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-492214263305

The point is that Vallance has no idea whether the number for fully vaccinated patients is 60 per cent or 10 per cent of the total. He saw a fat number which suited his purpose, so out it came. He didn't seem terribly embarrassed when forced to admit that it was completely wrong.

As to the status of patients in ICU beds, which is being suggested as the real pinch point, I continue to believe that no data at all has been released. That may of course be because they are not even collecting it.
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:12 am

He said that 60% of hospital admissions had received at least one dose of vaccine but he simply got it the wrong way round. It was 60-40 in the other direction and 60% of hospital vaccinations were unvaccinated.

He wasn't just making it up, he was looking at evidence - I appreciate that you find this a difficult concept to comprehend.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:19 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:12 am
He said that 60% of hospital admissions had received at least one dose of vaccine but he simply got it the wrong way round. It was 60-40 in the other direction and 60% of hospital vaccinations were unvaccinated.

He wasn't just making it up, he was looking at evidence - I appreciate that you find this a difficult concept to comprehend.
No, he said that 60% of hospitalisations had received two doses.

Based on what we have now been told, what do you believe is the true number?
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:41 am

You can see all the slides from the July 19th press conference here

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -july-2021

Those who have received a single dose are not a very important group in terms of policy because they are not very vulnerable in general. The key groups are double vaccinated vulnerable (for dying) and the unvaccinated not very vulnerable (for spreading). Hospital admissions are split roughly equally between the two key groups Whether it 60-40 or 40-60 isn't really important.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:56 am

There is nothing in the slides which refers to these numbers. As to the single vaccinated group, you have been caught out, so have defined them as "not very important" and put them in at zero per cent.

You should be a member of SAGE. You certainly share their approach to science.
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:00 am

Nick,
Data is changing all the time, so it is important to see the bigger picture and the trends. You obviously have no interest whatsoever in this. I am surprised and disappointed by your approach.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:03 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:00 am
Nick,
Data is changing all the time, so it is important to see the bigger picture and the trends. You obviously have no interest whatsoever in this. I am surprised and disappointed by your approach.
You really don't like it when you are caught fibbing, do you?
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Angus French
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Angus French » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:12 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:44 pm
Angus French wrote:
Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:06 pm
And in terms of ICU bed capacity and occupancy?
Very few vaccinated people seem to get that far ( although the figures are of course suppressed ).
NickFaulks wrote:
Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:39 pm
Mick Norris wrote:
Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:19 pm
It's not the number of beds, of course, it's the number of staff that is key
Which was where I started but someone said no, it's about beds.
I'm not sure why vaccination status is relevant to ICU bed occupancy.

The Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group wrote yesterday:
Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group wrote:It is important to track the impact on the NHS, which in turn affects mortality and policy decisions. Mechanical Ventilation (MV) bed occupancy is one useful indicator. In our earlier bulletin Nicola Oliver discussed how the need for staff with sufficient expertise for ICU treatment make capacity limits relatively inflexible in the short term.

647 MV beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients on 21 July, the last date for which data is available. The average rate of increase in UK MV bed occupancy was about 3.5% over the last month.

If the recent rate of increase were to continue we could expect to exceed the occupancy levels at which we initiated the first and second national lockdowns within two weeks, and the level at which December's national Tier 4 restrictions were introduced within four weeks.

If the rate of increase were to reduce by half, MV bed occupancy would exceed the levels of the first two lockdowns by mid-August.

Intensive Care wards are at risk of strain if current trends continue.
"CovidOccupiedMVBeds" is a measure for which data can be downloaded here and I see the count increased to 699 on 22 July (from the 647 of the previous day).

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:15 am

Let's put this in the scientific terms which Matthew prefers.

A = Percentage of hospitalisations double vaccinated.

B = Percentage of hospitalisations single vaccinated.

C = Percentage of hospitalisations unvaccinated.

Vallance claimed that A=60. This was untrue, on this occasion he was caught and had to admit that C=60. Therefore A=40-B.

Matthew's attempt to dig him out runs

i) B isn't very important for some reason, so let's say B=0, so A=40.

ii) In the big picture, 40 is pretty much the same as 60.

QED
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:24 am

Pandemics go in waves so the infection is spread by the young who socialise more and then spreads up the age range. If we are at the start (or even the middle) of a wave if 40% of those effected are the elderly then that will naturally become 60% in time. Arguing over whether it is 40,50 or 60 % now is irrelevant, because we know the direction of travel.
What we need to model is when the wave the top out and at what level.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:26 am

Angus French wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:12 am
I'm not sure why vaccination status is relevant to ICU bed occupancy.
It is part of the campaign to convince us that full vaccination does not offer protection against serious illness if you are otherwise in good health.

I suspect this is generally untrue, but either way it is important and data should be available. Unless I am still missing something, It isn't.
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NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:29 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:24 am
Arguing over whether it is 40,50 or 60 % now is irrelevant
As above, it is 40 minus B, so the "argument" is whether it is 30, 20 or 10%.
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NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:33 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:24 am
What we need to model is when the wave the top out and at what level.
Modelling the future is easier if you have some idea where you are now.
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Angus French
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Angus French » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:36 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:26 am
Angus French wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:12 am
I'm not sure why vaccination status is relevant to ICU bed occupancy.
It is part of the campaign to convince us that full vaccination does not offer protection against serious illness if you are otherwise in good health.

I suspect this is generally untrue, but either way it is important and data should be available. Unless I am still missing something, It isn't.
Yes, but how is this germane to the current thread? What *is* relevant, I would argue, is ICU bed occupancy and capacity - and, as the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group make clear (see text I quoted a few posts back), we're getting pretty close to the levels at which previous lockdowns started.

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