Start Date of Next Lockdown?
-
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 10:34 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
I m not sure I'd take notice of any 'official' report where the sentence starts 'None of the cases are...'
Maybe this post should be in the 'pedants' thread.
Maybe this post should be in the 'pedants' thread.
-
- Posts: 2154
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
From a Guardian piece published a couple of hours ago:
The Guardian wrote:The Guardian has seen leaked advice from UKHSA for [Sajid] Javid, marked “official, sensitive” saying: “The key point is that under a range of plausible scenarios, stringent action is needed on or before 18 December 2021 if doubling times stay at 2.5 days. Even if doubling times rise to around 5 days, stringent action is likely still needed in December.”
It adds: “The rapid spread of Omicron means that action to limit pressures on the health system might have to come earlier than intuition suggests.” Its calculations suggest that even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, then “stringent national measures’” would be needed by 18 December at the latest.
-
- Posts: 5262
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
- Location: Millom, Cumbria
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
Isn't this the report just referred to, with its implausible exponential scenarios?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
-
- Posts: 337
- Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2009 8:37 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
I don't see it as being implausible that case numbers should continue to double at the same rate from a small base for quite some time.
I did see a report in the Times the other day that said that experts were predicting/estimating that if delta continued at current levels, and omicron continued to grow, then by the time two-thirds of cases were omicron, hospital admissions would be double the current level if omicron only resulted in half the level of admissions that delta does. Which is not a prediction or an estimate, it's just simple arithmetic.
I did see a report in the Times the other day that said that experts were predicting/estimating that if delta continued at current levels, and omicron continued to grow, then by the time two-thirds of cases were omicron, hospital admissions would be double the current level if omicron only resulted in half the level of admissions that delta does. Which is not a prediction or an estimate, it's just simple arithmetic.
-
- Posts: 8479
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
I thought the experts were predicting that omicron would crowd out other variants, as delta has itself done. Using suitable starting assumptions, simple arithmetic can produce any answer you want.David Williams wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:15 amI did see a report in the Times the other day that said that experts were predicting/estimating that if delta continued at current levels, and omicron continued to grow
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.
-
- Posts: 2154
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
SAGE have said the two variants might co-exist. This piece suggests it could be possible for a person to be infected by both at the same time.NickFaulks wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:11 amI thought the experts were predicting that omicron would crowd out other variants, as delta has itself done.
-
- Posts: 8479
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
I assume that if they had actually found such a person, they would have said so.Angus French wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:57 amSAGE have said the two variants might co-exist. This piece suggests it could be possible for a person to be infected by both at the same time.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.
-
- Posts: 7258
- Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:29 am
- Location: Cove, Hampshire, England.
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
I'm placing a bet on January 2nd, 2022.
British Chess News : britishchessnews.com
Twitter: @BritishChess
Facebook: facebook.com/groups/britishchess
Twitter: @BritishChess
Facebook: facebook.com/groups/britishchess
-
- Posts: 5262
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
- Location: Millom, Cumbria
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
Practically speaking, it needs to be passed by parliament first. And given what happened yesterday, would the PM dare?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
-
- Posts: 3053
- Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
Well, there are a lot of people very heavily vaccinated against delta (also previous infections) but with much weaker protection against Omicron (even with boosters). Logically you'd think that would yield conditions to make coexistence reasonably plausible?NickFaulks wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:11 amI thought the experts were predicting that omicron would crowd out other variants, as delta has itself done. Using suitable starting assumptions, simple arithmetic can produce any answer you want.David Williams wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:15 amI did see a report in the Times the other day that said that experts were predicting/estimating that if delta continued at current levels, and omicron continued to grow
-
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 10:34 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
Although the Pfizer booster apparently provides only up to 75% protection against 'infection', the latest indications are that it will provide over 90% protection v severe disease, and that is what really matters.
-
- Posts: 1739
- Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:15 pm
Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?
Interesting discussion/analysis of Omicron with some South African dude, who is predicting it will have a much smaller impact than the projections we are seeing regularly in the media:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWrjX1ty2EU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWrjX1ty2EU