COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

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Jon Tait
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Jon Tait » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:33 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:56 pm
Belgium, Slovenia and the Czech Republic all have higher per capita death rates, as do two micro states Gibraltar and San Marino.

However, facts don't matter when maligning the Prime Minister, so no worries then.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Well done. You've found a website that puts the UK sixth (hurrah!) on a worldwide list, so you can deflect anger at over a hundred thousand deaths into some drivel about "maligning the Prime Minister". Good job.

Meanwhile, the Oxford University research platform Our World in Data does put us up top:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 88817.html
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:08 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:56 pm
Jon Tait wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:09 am
Over 100,000 deaths now, with the worst per capita death rate IN THE WORLD.
But Boris Johnson says he's deeply sorry and did everything he could, so no worries then :roll: :roll: :roll:

Belgium, Slovenia and the Czech Republic all have higher per capita death rates, as do two micro states Gibraltar and San Marino.

However, facts don't matter when maligning the Prime Minister, so no worries then.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Well facts demonstratably don't matter to him either, so......
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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MJMcCready
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by MJMcCready » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:56 am

The problem with figures is that they are so easily massaged and manipulated. The fact that policy is shaped by them is, some would say, highly questionable. Given how adept the government has been at presenting the unemployment rate at a level which has been kept artificially low for decades, its hard to imagine the figures presented are likely to be a true reflection of what is really going on.

John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:35 pm

"Surge testing to begin in Lambeth after South African variant found..."

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/u ... ant-found/

Where there's one case there are probably several more...

The figures for the actual number of cases of the S. African variant of the virus are almost certainly way too low and the test, track & trace system is playing catch up.

Government Minister, however, said they do not expect the S. African variant to become dominant in the UK. (Think I heard one of their expert advisers add the caveat - within the next several months!?)
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Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:46 pm

Prof Van-Tam is further asked about previous comments he made that the SA variant is unlikely to "take over".

He says this is because of the rate of growth of the variant is not overtaking the Kent one
from the BBC website
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:10 pm

There really is far too much uninformed scaremongering over these "mutant variants".

(not helped, needless to say, by a media that largely prioritises "clicks" and sensationalism over information and accuracy)
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John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:09 pm

Not everything you read here (or in the media) is "uninformed scaremongering".

E.g.

"COVID-19: Government failed to contact 375,000 to tell them to shield, watchdog finds..."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-gove ... 00667.html

And, if "mutant variants" are not much to shout about why is the UK trying to beat down the one they've already let in? Also, why increase the entry restrictions to the country if there's just "scaremongering"?
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:23 pm

The "scaremongering" is along the lines of "the virus will NEVER be beaten so its LOCKDOWN FOREVER".

Palpably, demonstratably untrue. Yes vigilance is going to be needed for the foreseeable, but that is not the same thing.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Nick Grey
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Nick Grey » Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:07 pm

Croydon, Norwood, Gypsy hill variant. and bame health workers not taking a jab...

John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:22 am

Mick Norris wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:46 pm
Prof Van-Tam is further asked about previous comments he made that the SA variant is unlikely to "take over".

He says this is because of the rate of growth of the variant is not overtaking the Kent one
from the BBC website
He also said, "... There are no signs that South African variant is running at that speed at the moment and therefore I don't frame it as something that is going to be a dominant issued in the next few months..."

He added, “I have concerns that uptake in the minority ethnic groups is not going to be as rapid or as high as in the indigenous white population of the UK."

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsmanc ... r-BB1dyUhl
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soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:43 pm

Seems that UK is finishing the vaccination, good.
But restrictions are still in place?

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:02 pm

But we're still some way off "finished", and getting figures as low as practically possible before reopening things is maybe not unreasonable.
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John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:40 pm

How low can the UK go?

The number of new infections reported today was more than 6,000 and that is down from about 20,000 per day not that long ago.

The obvious potential problem is -

Ideally scientists and medics would like to see that number reduced to below 1,000 new detected infected people per day before 21st June.

That is going to be difficult as the schools were reopened on 8th May and, if all goes to plan, lockdown restrictions are to be further relaxed at the end of March (outdoors rule of 6 returns) and on 12th April (barbers, hairdressers & non-essential shops, etc. reopen), 17th May (international travel & foreign holidays, etc. allowed) prior to the UK Euro football fixtures starting 2nd week in June and on 21st June "all remaining restrictions on social contact to be lifted".

Infections are predicted to rise temporarily as each relaxation happens but the hope is they remain low enough to keep the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to Covid-19 acceptably low.

The vast majority of UK adults (over 18 y.o.) are not all expected to be vaccinated until around the end of July, if so, there's a vaccination gap that may give the virus a window of opportunity to carry on...

About 23 million UK adults (out of about 60 million and that's over 1 in 3) have now received a first dose of vaccine and about 1.3 million have had a second dose.

The schedule is set to be reviewed every 5 weeks and rescheduled if the numbers in the data are going the wrong way.

To me it looks suspiciously like another optimistic gamble, to others a calculated risk worth taking, for some it is not optimistic enough and too slow.

We'll see how it all goes.

PS I believe President Biden hopes to vaccinate most adults in the US by the end of May!? There individual states have a lot of say on reopening their internal economies and cannot be prevented by the Federal Gov. In the UK Scotland, Wales & N. Ireland can operate like that to some degree, but England must do as dictated by the UK Gov.
Last edited by John McKenna on Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:28 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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NickFaulks
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by NickFaulks » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:22 pm

John McKenna wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:40 pm
Ideally scientists and medics would like to see that number reduced to below 1,000 new detected infected people per day before 21st June.
If you test enough people you can guarantee that in false positives alone.
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John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:18 pm

As I've said before - it's the false negatives that are the real problem with falsies.

A number of people employed on test, track & trace have already been let go but they may be track & tracers not testers!?
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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