How low can the UK go?
The number of new infections reported today was more than 6,000 and that is down from about 20,000 per day not that long ago.
The obvious potential problem is -
Ideally scientists and medics would like to see that number reduced to below 1,000 new detected infected people per day before 21st June.
That is going to be difficult as the schools were reopened on 8th May and, if all goes to plan, lockdown restrictions are to be further relaxed at the end of March (outdoors rule of 6 returns) and on 12th April (barbers, hairdressers & non-essential shops, etc. reopen), 17th May (international travel & foreign holidays, etc. allowed) prior to the UK Euro football fixtures starting 2nd week in June and on 21st June "all remaining restrictions on social contact to be lifted".
Infections are predicted to rise temporarily as each relaxation happens but the hope is they remain low enough to keep the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to Covid-19 acceptably low.
The vast majority of UK adults (over 18 y.o.) are not all expected to be vaccinated until around the end of July, if so, there's a vaccination gap that may give the virus a window of opportunity to carry on...
About 23 million UK adults (out of about 60 million and that's over 1 in 3) have now received a first dose of vaccine and about 1.3 million have had a second dose.
The schedule is set to be reviewed every 5 weeks and rescheduled if the numbers in the data are going the wrong way.
To me it looks suspiciously like another optimistic gamble, to others a calculated risk worth taking, for some it is not optimistic enough and too slow.
We'll see how it all goes.
PS I believe President Biden hopes to vaccinate most adults in the US by the end of May!? There individual states have a lot of say on reopening their internal economies and cannot be prevented by the Federal Gov. In the UK Scotland, Wales & N. Ireland can operate like that to some degree, but England must do as dictated by the UK Gov.
Last edited by John McKenna
on Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:28 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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