2016 Candidates prediction (redux)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

This is a second poll for the Candidates 2016, following on from the initial poll (where Caruana [13] and Nakamura [10] took most of the 39 votes). This poll will have to run for a shorter time as the event is in progress, so I'll set it to run for four days, ending at this time on Tuesday (the rest day between rounds 9 and 10). There will still be five rounds left after that.

Today is the second rest day, between rounds 6 and 7.

Current standings are:

1-2. Karjakin, Aronian (4/6)
3. Anand (3.5)
4-5. Caruana, Giri (3)
6. Svidler (2.5)
7-8. Topalov, Nakamura (2)

[Matthew Turner]

I went for Giri before, so I'll do so again. It seems to me that all we (probably) know so far is that Svidler, Topalov and Nakamura are out of contention and that Anand is a much more serious contender than many of us would have expected.
I would also say that the event hasn't grasped my imagination in the same way that the London candidates did. Whilst I haven't had a lot of time to look at the games I haven't found them that exciting.

[Paolo Casaschi]

I see no reason to change my original prediction of a victory for Anand.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Am surprised no-one has gone for Caruana yet. I think if things click for him, he may get on a roll. He seems close to getting into that form. He would have been my second choice behind Karjakin. Bit surprised Aronian is so popular so far.

[Matt Mackenzie]

I thought about it, tbh - he is certainly capable of doing what Kramnik did in 2013 if it does indeed "click".

Throwing away an almost trivial win against Topalov could well ultimately cost him dear, though

[LawrenceCooper]

Am surprised no-one has gone for Caruana yet. I think if things click for him, he may get on a roll. He seems close to getting into that form. He would have been my second choice behind Karjakin. Bit surprised Aronian is so popular so far.

I thought that Caruana's time trouble and nerves may be a problem. Having said that my pre tournament tip of Nakamura is looking somewhat wide of the mark I would love Aronian to win so I'll tip Karjakin to do so

[Paolo Casaschi]

I would love Aronian to win so I'll tip Karjakin to do so

You might have jinxed both of then with just one sentence

[Chris Rice]

I agree with Matt Turner. The way the tournament is going it would suit someone playing conservatively, content to draw and picking up the occasional win especially in the later stages. That is Giri's MO. It's quite an exciting tournament as none of the 8 players are ruled out yet though Topalov and Nakamura look badly bruised at the moment.

[JustinHorton]

Am surprised no-one has gone for Caruana yet. I think if things click for him, he may get on a roll. He seems close to getting into that form. He would have been my second choice behind Karjakin. Bit surprised Aronian is so popular so far.

I can't work out whether Caruana is the next best thing to Carlsen or just the preparation king. If it's the former then yeah, his form might suggest that sooner or later he's going to start winning these positions. If the latter, it might be that his nerves are going to keep on costing him.

Either way I think if either Karjakin or Aronian adds to their balance, Caruana will be too far back. But he might get to +2. Ditto Giri.

Anyway, I've voted for Karjakin on the grounds of nervelessness.

[Mick Norris]

Am surprised no-one has gone for Caruana yet. I think if things click for him, he may get on a roll. He seems close to getting into that form. He would have been my second choice behind Karjakin. Bit surprised Aronian is so popular so far.

I thought that Caruana's time trouble and nerves may be a problem. Having said that my pre tournament tip of Nakamura is looking somewhat wide of the mark I would love Aronian to win so I'll tip Karjakin to do so

He'll be delighted - your selection ability is as good as Wenger's usually

I have switched from Caruana to Aronian, so that may rule out Levon

[Jonathan Bryant]

Little side-bet for folk if interested:

Will there be an actual proper Berlin in this event?


Also - after you’ve posted "I hope not" and so forth, could somebody tell the last major event (defined as you please) that *didn’t* have at least one main line Berlin Wall in it?

[Roger de Coverly]

could somebody tell the last major event (defined as you please) that *didn’t* have at least one main line Berlin Wall in it?

It was a big event, if not the strongest, but the December Open at the London Chess Classic didn't feature any, nor despite Luke's efforts did the recorded games at the following Rapidplay. There have been four Berlin attempts in the 4NCL so far, but only one that reached a main line.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I said Giri originally and was tempted to stick with him; but have switched to Karjakin who has been the most convincing so far, and we know from last time that he finishes well. (Had he started like this in 2014, he would have walked it!)

[PeterFarr]

I'll stick with Karjakin, though would like to see Aronian have a go at the title, I feel he deserves a shot.

I'd rather see a French of any variety, but would also be quite happy to see Jonathan's proper Berlin at least once.

[NickFaulks]

Dragged in from another thread.

How to beat the Berlin Defence to the Ruy Lopez:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK4dhB2 ... e=youtu.be

I hope that one's being rushed to Moscow.