2024 Candidates qualification revised process

[Pete Morriss]

FIDE Circuit leader board updated

Giri 84.31
So 83.40
Gukesh 79.50 (playing London)
Erigaisi 71.56 (playing Gashimov Memorial)

I think that the London Chess Classic is not relevant here: even if Gukesh were to win, he would gain an insignificant number of FIDE Circuit points (less than 0.2). He would then have to get a higher-scoring result somewhere else, when his London result would disappear from the calculation. The tournament is just not strong enough to be useful to him.

I haven't checked myself but others have said that if he wins outright it will make a huge difference to his chances.

Sorry, I may have made a mistake in my calculation. I think now that if he wins outright he would gain 5.2 points, which would indeed make a huge difference. Many apologies.

[Mick Norris]

Would joint first help Gukesh?

[LawrenceCooper]

Would joint first help Gukesh?

Apparantly not.

[Mick Norris]

He's off to a good start

[Mick Norris]

Nepo - Giri, MVL- Firouzja, Aronian - Giri drawn

Caruana- Rapport ongoing

So will be 3rd at worst, 2nd equal at best

Caruana won to win the tournament and return to 2800+ live (2804).

6 ↑1 So, Wesley 2757.4 +5.4
7 ↑6 Dominguez Perez, Leinier 2756.2 +11.2
8 ↓3 Firouzja, Alireza 2750.3 −26.7
10 ↓2 Giri, Anish 2749.3 −2.7

Dominguez, when interviewed after his game, said he will be looking into tournaments outside the US in December.

Dominguez playing Sunway Sitges

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Dominguez playing Sunway Sitges

I assume because you quoted the live ratings, this relates to Dominguez attempting to get the rating qualification place?

Why tournaments outside the USA?

In terms of the FIDE Circuit place, is Giri still favourite there?

https://wcc.fide.com/fide_circuit.phtml

I see the eligible events for December 2023 are:

DECEMBER
2023 London Chess Classic (London, UK, 01-10 December)
Vugar Gashimov Memorial 2023 (Gabala, Azerbaijan, 07-11 December)
Champions Chess Tour Finals 2023 (Toronto, Canada, 09-16 December)
Chessable Sunway Sitges International Chess Festival (Barselona, Spain, 12-22 December)
FIDE World Rapid Championship (Samarkand, Uzbekistan, 26-28 December)
FIDE World Blitz Championship (Samarkand, Uzbekistan, 29-30 December)

Are people presuming that because the usual suspects will top the FIDE World Rapid and Blitz Championships, that these two events won't play a big role in the final placings? ("The final score is calculated as the sum of the player’s five highest scores.")

Is it still a possibility that a bespoke event might appear in late December that allows a final push for qualification? (This was mentioned in connection with Gukesh, I think.)

It is quite funny that 460(!) players appear on the FIDE Circuit Leaderboard... The only ENG player (at 320) is Daniel Fernandez, courtesy of his result in the Las Vegas/National Open 2023. Can't quite work out why no other ENG players are on there?

Each player has to play in a minimum of five eligible tournaments.

As far as I can tell, only 15 people are showing as having played in 5 eligible tournaments, and only one of the last two (the Rapid and Blitz WCC) can count. So am I the only one asking what is the point of this FIDE Circuit malarkey?

[Ian Thompson]

Why tournaments outside the USA?

That's because only one tournament per country can count towards a player's score, excluding national championships and FIDE-run events. One of Dominguez Perez's existing qualifying tournaments is the Sinquefeld Cup, so he can't have another one in America, even if there had been one in December.

It is quite funny that 460(!) players appear on the FIDE Circuit Leaderboard... The only ENG player (at 320) is Daniel Fernandez, courtesy of his result in the Las Vegas/National Open 2023. Can't quite work out why no other ENG players are on there?

It can't be up-to-date. Adams must have scored some points yesterday.

[Mick Norris]

The updated list has Adams in 63rd place

Tabatabaei is up to 8th

Giri favourite as he has the points on the board, as it were

[Paul Cooksey]

The registration deadline for the Rapid + Blitz WC is today, which should help work out possible scenarios.

[Mick Norris]

The registration deadline for the Rapid + Blitz WC is today, which should help work out possible scenarios.

Is the list available?

I have opened a thread on Sunway Sitges to help track Dominguez in that; does he have to play the full event, or can he withdraw part way through if he overtakes So in the live ratings?

I have opened a thread on the Chennai Grand Masters; their website says

Currently Wesley So has the highest rating with 2757.4. Dominguez is playing at the Sunway Sitges starting shortly. Parham Maghsoodloo has an outside chance if he manages to 14.2 Elo points from the event. Not at all easy, but not impossible.

To reach the top of the leaderboard in FIDE Circuit, Arjun needs to win outright. He would then surpass Anish Giri by a whisker.

Gukesh needs to do one of:

a) Win outright or finish tied 1st-2nd with any tie-breaks

b) Tie 1st -3rd but be top in top 2 by tie-breaks

c) Tie with up to 5 players but be top on tie breaks

[Paul Cooksey]

The registration deadline for the Rapid + Blitz WC is today, which should help work out possible scenarios.

Is the list available?

Yes, as of today: https://chess-results.com/tnr864420.aspx?lan=1

No surprises - Wesley So has not entered, but Giri, Gukesh and Erigasi have. Therefore looks like a three horse race for the circuit place.

@chess_insights has posted a good thread on twitter on what Erigasi and Gukesh need to do to overtake Giri. I have not tried to check his maths, but his summary is very helpful assuming correct:

To get enough points from only the India event, Arjun needs to win outright. Gukesh needs to do one of:
a) Win outright or finish tied 1st-2nd with any tie-breaks
b) Tie 1st -3rd but be top in top 2 by tie-breaks
c) Tie with up to 5 players but be top on tie breaks
But here is where things get interesting, Arjun and Gukesh could try to catch Anish using a combination of world rapid and India tournament. Many permutations possible, but her are the thumb rules:
a) Gukesh catches Anish winning one of the events or having a finishing position total of <=5. (for e.g. 2nd in India and 3rd in World Rapid)
b) Arjun catches Anish by winning one of the events or having a finishing position total of <=4.
All this assumes that Anish's score remains constant. Every position above 5th for Anish at W.Rapid increases the positions needed for others by 1. So if he finishes 3rd in WR, then Gukesh's cumulative target becomes <=3.

The rating spot a bit simpler, probably simply whether Dominguez can pass and stay ahead of So at Stiges, unless there is an incredible performance at the India event.

I am doubtful Dominguez will fall ill as soon as he is ahead, since he has always seemed a decent guy and even if he wasn't, the secret FIDE fine print would probably go against him. So an extra reason to follow Stiges.

[Mick Norris]

With Dominguez having withdraw, So at 2757.4 live rating looks likely to get the rating slot; Maghsoodloo is on 2737.0 after 3 rounds of the Chennai Masters

[Kevin Thurlow]

"The registration deadline for the Rapid + Blitz WC is today, which should help work out possible scenarios."

I may have missed comments, but I am not convinced that RP and Blitz events should be used as a qualification method for "classical" chess. Well, OK, I think it's totally stupid.

[LawrenceCooper]

With Dominguez having withdraw, So at 2757.4 live rating looks likely to get the rating slot; Maghsoodloo is on 2737.0 after 3 rounds of the Chennai Masters

Alireza is playing a series of matches from 18th - 22nd December against Sergey Fedorchuk (2546), Andrei Shchekachev (2506) & Alexandre Dgebuadze (2439) so he may not be out of the equation.

[Graham Borrowdale]

Alireza is playing a series of matches from 18th - 22nd December against Sergey Fedorchuk (2546), Andrei Shchekachev (2506) & Alexandre Dgebuadze (2439) so he may not be out of the equation.

It seems strange that one individual can arrange their own event (well, their backers can) in order to try to qualify for the world championship. I am trying to think of any other sport where that would be possible.