English Chess Forum

This is an 8 player 14 round event. For the first time since the Candidates tournaments returned there will be rapid and tie-breaks among players tied for first. Tie-break coefficients were used in the past - although there were provisions for a tie-break match the conditions needed for them to happen meant they were all but impossible. Players: Ian Nepomniachtchi, Teimour Radjabov, Jan-Krzysztof Duda, Alireza Firouzja, Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Richard Rapport, and Ding Liren.

Round 1, June 17

Duda – Rapport
Ding Liren – Nepomniachtchi
Caruana – Nakamura
Radjabov – Firouzja

I looked at all Candidate Tournaments since 2013, when Carlsen qualified for the championship, to build the statistical models. Previous events had 14 rounds and an average rating of 2770-2787. I logged birth year, peak rating, the peak year, points off of peak, and years off of peak. For peak ratings, I only looked before that event date. All of these factors were in consideration for a statistical model to predict performance rating. The most important predictors were:

Current rating at the event
Peak rating before the event
Age
Years away from their peak rating
Factors 3 and 4 were not statistically significant and only affected projected performance ratings by about one Elo point. Both current and peak ratings had a positive association with predicted performance ratings

Games begin on June 17!

Asked whether he has officially been invited to the Candidates, Ding said: "Yes, I am applying for the visa and buying the tickets now, but it's not 100 per cent sure. If Karjakin has applied for CAS then I may lose the spot."

Ding Liren, Alireza Firouzja, Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Richard Rapport, Hikaru Nakamura, Teimour Radjabov and Jan-Krzysztof Duda start battle in Madrid on Friday June 17th for the right to play Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Chess Championship match. We’ve got Judit Polgar and Jan Gustafsson commentating live on all 14 rounds, with the likes of David Howell and Magnus himself set to join from time to time.

First, we need to clarify that there is a difference when I play White or Black. If I play Black against a strong opponent, then I'm usually satisfied with a draw and the preparation itself is much easier. I decide which opening I want to go for and there are far fewer lines to remember. You need to have something against 1.d4, 1.e4, and it would also be good if you had something against 1.c4 and 1.Nf3.

It’s easier with Black, but with White, things get a bit more complicated. When we play 1.d4, there are more than ten ways in which Black can reply and the same goes for 1.e4. However, stronger players are rather consistent in their choices. I think most of them will play 1...e5 against 1.e4 and, on the one hand, this is cool as it considerably narrows down the preparation, but on the other hand, it can be frustrating. Just imagine having to play for a win against the Berlin Defense, the Marshall, or the Italian Game.

Matt Mackenzie wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:07 pm

Well of those three, both the Berlin and what we used to call the Giuoco Piano result in a fair amount of decisive results in practice.

Its only the Marshall which is actually approaching "close to a worked out draw" territory.