Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

The very latest International round up of English news.
Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Thu May 12, 2022 12:16 pm

TWIC
This is an 8 player 14 round event. For the first time since the Candidates tournaments returned there will be rapid and tie-breaks among players tied for first. Tie-break coefficients were used in the past - although there were provisions for a tie-break match the conditions needed for them to happen meant they were all but impossible. Players: Ian Nepomniachtchi, Teimour Radjabov, Jan-Krzysztof Duda, Alireza Firouzja, Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Richard Rapport, and Ding Liren.
Regulations can be downloaded

Tiebreak

Pairings
Round 1, June 17

Duda – Rapport
Ding Liren – Nepomniachtchi
Caruana – Nakamura
Radjabov – Firouzja
Venue with photos
Any postings on here represent my personal views

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Fri May 13, 2022 9:43 am

What do the numbers say?
I looked at all Candidate Tournaments since 2013, when Carlsen qualified for the championship, to build the statistical models. Previous events had 14 rounds and an average rating of 2770-2787. I logged birth year, peak rating, the peak year, points off of peak, and years off of peak. For peak ratings, I only looked before that event date. All of these factors were in consideration for a statistical model to predict performance rating. The most important predictors were:

Current rating at the event
Peak rating before the event
Age
Years away from their peak rating
Factors 3 and 4 were not statistically significant and only affected projected performance ratings by about one Elo point. Both current and peak ratings had a positive association with predicted performance ratings
Any postings on here represent my personal views

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Wed May 18, 2022 7:09 pm

chess.com updated Meet the Candidates
Games begin on June 17!
Any postings on here represent my personal views

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Sat May 21, 2022 7:57 am

chess24 interview with Ding
Asked whether he has officially been invited to the Candidates, Ding said: "Yes, I am applying for the visa and buying the tickets now, but it's not 100 per cent sure. If Karjakin has applied for CAS then I may lose the spot."
Any postings on here represent my personal views

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat May 21, 2022 6:09 pm

How late can Karjakin leave it to do that, then?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:27 pm

FIDE Candidates Tournament starts Friday chess24 reminds me
Ding Liren, Alireza Firouzja, Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Richard Rapport, Hikaru Nakamura, Teimour Radjabov and Jan-Krzysztof Duda start battle in Madrid on Friday June 17th for the right to play Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Chess Championship match. We’ve got Judit Polgar and Jan Gustafsson commentating live on all 14 rounds, with the likes of David Howell and Magnus himself set to join from time to time.
Does someone want to set up a poll so we can make idiots of ourselves predicting a winner?
Any postings on here represent my personal views

User avatar
JustinHorton
Posts: 10364
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
Location: Somewhere you're not

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by JustinHorton » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:18 am

Tickets sold out, it says here
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

Nick Burrows
Posts: 1705
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Nick Burrows » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:36 am

Kasparov makes Ding favourite. Also likes Caruana & Duda.

Chris Rice
Posts: 3417
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:17 am

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Chris Rice » Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:55 am

An epic opening round set for Friday. The bookies have Ding as the slight favourite to win the tournament at the moment ahead of Caruana and Firouzja in third. Rapport and Radjabov are huge long shots. Do we think it's likely that if Caruana or Nepo wins it then Carlsen almost certainly drops out?

Round 1
Duda - Rapport
Ding - Nepomniachtchi
Caruana - Nakamura
Radjabov - Firouzja

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:53 am

Not surprised Radjabov is a huge long shot; when did he last win an OTB game at classical time controls?
Any postings on here represent my personal views

NickFaulks
Posts: 8453
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:19 am

FIDE World Cup 2019.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.

Mick Norris
Posts: 10330
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:20 pm

Blimey, long time then

TWIC

Duda interview
First, we need to clarify that there is a difference when I play White or Black. If I play Black against a strong opponent, then I'm usually satisfied with a draw and the preparation itself is much easier. I decide which opening I want to go for and there are far fewer lines to remember. You need to have something against 1.d4, 1.e4, and it would also be good if you had something against 1.c4 and 1.Nf3.

It’s easier with Black, but with White, things get a bit more complicated. When we play 1.d4, there are more than ten ways in which Black can reply and the same goes for 1.e4. However, stronger players are rather consistent in their choices. I think most of them will play 1...e5 against 1.e4 and, on the one hand, this is cool as it considerably narrows down the preparation, but on the other hand, it can be frustrating. Just imagine having to play for a win against the Berlin Defense, the Marshall, or the Italian Game.
chess24 updated preview
Any postings on here represent my personal views

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:07 pm

Well of those three, both the Berlin and what we used to call the Giuoco Piano result in a fair amount of decisive results in practice.

Its only the Marshall which is actually approaching "close to a worked out draw" territory.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Nick Burrows
Posts: 1705
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Nick Burrows » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:34 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:07 pm
Well of those three, both the Berlin and what we used to call the Giuoco Piano result in a fair amount of decisive results in practice.

Its only the Marshall which is actually approaching "close to a worked out draw" territory.
According to the Lichess "Masters" database, games in the Marshall 70% draws, the Berlin 60% draws and the Italian 50% draws.

This compares with the Najdorf 48%, Caro-Kan 43%, French 41%, Pirc 37%, Modern 33%

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:10 pm

I was sort of right then (certainly about the Italian Game - as we now seem obliged to call it - anyway)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)