Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:55 pm

Must be something in the water. Apart from the drawn game, all the evaluation bars are now fully White or Black (and Rapport has resigned).

NickFaulks
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:07 pm

I don't understand why Naka is so totally lost, but I expect the computer is right.
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JustinHorton
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:21 pm

Gustafsson and Polgar are speculating on Carlsen playing in the next Candidates, something I am very sure will not happen.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:28 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:21 pm
Gustafsson and Polgar are speculating on Carlsen playing in the next Candidates, something I am very sure will not happen.
I do vaguely remember Carlsen saying something at some point (quite a few years ago now) about how he missed playing in big tournaments like this one. I don't think I will be able to remember where or when he said that, unless someone else can help out with whether I am imagining that or not?

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:30 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:07 pm
I don't understand why Naka is so totally lost, but I expect the computer is right.
Because Black is unable to defend the g-pawn and h-pawn?

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by David Sedgwick » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:35 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:07 pm
I don't understand why Naka is so totally lost, but I expect the computer is right.
Ramirez has just given an explanation on the Saint Louis Chess Club commentary. It comes down to a King and Pawn ending where Ding can play f6, gobble up the King side Pawns and then head for the Queen side.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:06 pm

And Nakamura resigns.
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Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:08 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:42 pm
Duda and Nepo draw to conclude one of the all-time great tournament performances.
Yes, although if Ding had won that first round game he's the challenger and Nepo finishes second.

It doesn't feel like it was that close at all. But it seems it was.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:04 pm

Disaster for Caruana!
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:21 pm

Yes, what an absolute nightmare second half for him.
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Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:23 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:21 pm
Gustafsson and Polgar are speculating on Carlsen playing in the next Candidates, something I am very sure will not happen.
This got raised on the Chicken Chess Club, I think. Apparently there's no route for him to qualify - although obviously he could be a wild card.

Not that Carlsen will need to play in the candidates'. If at some point after he gives up the title* he wants a match against a "World Champion" he'll get one. FIDE World Championship or otherwise.




* assuming he does this.

Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:40 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:21 pm
Yes, what an absolute nightmare second half for him.

HALF WAY
1) NEPO + 4
2) CARUANA + 3
3) NAKAMURA =
4/5/6) DING -1
4/5/6) RAPPORT -1
4/5/6) DUDA -1
7/8) RADJABOV - 2
7/8) FIROUZJA - 2


AT THE END
1) NEPO + 5
2) DING + 2
3/4) RADJABOV + 1
3/4)NAKAMURA + 1
5) CARUANA - 1
6) FIROUZJA - 2
7/8) DUDA - 3
7/8) RAPPORT - 3

So at the end of the top four finishers only NEPO and NAKAMURA were clearly in the top four at half-way. There was also a bit of DING - but he shared 4th equal with DUDA and RAPPORT who both sank to the bottom of the field.

But, clearly Caruana's was the biggest fall.




23 decisive games out of 56 in Madrid if I count correctly (not guaranteed) against 25 in 2020/2021.

9 Black wins in Madrid (39%) against 8 in 2020/2021 (32%). You'd need somebody better at maths than me to say whether that's statistically significant or not.


UPDATE: I am reliably advised that they are not.
Last edited by Jonathan Bryant on Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:51 pm

so, the three Candidates tournament debutants finished in the last three places. Not that one needs very much experience to do well though - Naka, Nepo, and Radjabov had only played once each. It is odd that the most experienced collapsed in the second half though. At least we knew from past performance that Ding would likely have a better second half ....

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Graham Borrowdale » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:26 pm

Jonathan Bryant wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:23 pm
Not that Carlsen will need to play in the candidates'. If at some point after he gives up the title* he wants a match against a "World Champion" he'll get one. FIDE World Championship or otherwise.
This is the thing that would worry me most, that we go back to the dark days of the best player trying to hand pick challengers, or bypassing the official qualification cycle, and people disregarding the official champion by using “ ”.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:35 pm

Graham Borrowdale wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:26 pm
Jonathan Bryant wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:23 pm
Not that Carlsen will need to play in the candidates'. If at some point after he gives up the title* he wants a match against a "World Champion" he'll get one. FIDE World Championship or otherwise.
This is the thing that would worry me most, that we go back to the dark days of the best player trying to hand pick challengers, or bypassing the official qualification cycle, and people disregarding the official champion by using “ ”.
I agree it’s not the best of all possible worlds. But it is not disregarding. Just facing reality.

The title of World Champion means little to nothing if it is not held the established best player in the World

It’s not much different to the time I won our club championship. The first team players never entered and one year I won it. It was an achievement (by my standards), sure, but it meant nothing to anybody else. It certainly had no relevance to the question of who was the best player in the club.

Trust me when I say nobody - not even me - remembers which year it was that I was the “club champion”.

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