Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:12 pm

Geoff Chandler wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:19 pm
Apparently Carlsen in Madrid for the last few rounds.
If so then we should discover soon what is going to happen.

Carlsen v Nepo II (preferred)
Nepo v A.N. Other (if so, then so be it)
Carlsen retires the title and it is given to Caruana as he was last challenger (Nah!)
A.N. Other v A.N. Other (Nepo refuses to play anyone unless he plays Carlsen.)
We could play this 'what if' game all day.

Of course he might just be there to visit the Real Madrid club shop to pick up next season's top.
I'm not at all convinced Carlsen has decided what he is going to do yet.

It could even be that Nepo's impressive showing here has made him more likely to play a repeat match, rather than less.
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LawrenceCooper
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:23 pm

Radjabov-Caruana is a draw which seems to help Ding & Naka's cause more than their own.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:36 pm

Nepo has drawn with Rapport, so we have the Challenger confirmed (unless something bizarre happens).

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:41 pm

Ding also draws so just Naka-Duda left which seems to have turned in white's favour.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:47 pm

So Ding is going to have to pull out all the stops tomorrow (probably).
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:49 pm

LawrenceCooper wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:41 pm
Ding also draws so just Naka-Duda left which seems to have turned in white's favour.
The Firouzja-Ding draw was actually a bit hair-raising, with a forced piece sacrifice from White to hold the position and get a perpetual!

Wonder if Nakamura is regretting his insta-draw with Nepo now?

Kevin Thurlow
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:17 pm

"I'm not at all convinced Carlsen has decided what he is going to do yet."

He may be just having fun and confusing people. Youtube has him playing blitz chess in the park there (beating Anna Cramling and losing horribly to Judit Polgar, whilst being heckled by Anish Giri!)

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:55 pm

Naka does indeed win to so either Ding (with a win) or Naka will finish second.

Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:44 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:49 pm

Wonder if Nakamura is regretting his insta-draw with Nepo now?
If he draws in the last round he may get a World Championship match. My guess is that he'd have taken that if offered it at the start of the tournament.


The whole CarlsenMayOrMayNotPlayAMatch saga meaning second place potentially has a lot of value strikes me as a bit like the play-off system in the football league. There's no logical reason at all why a team finishing 6th in a division 30 points behind the team in 3rd has a chance at getting the third promotion slot - but it does mean a lot of teams have a chance of promotion until very late on in the season which means what would have been dead games retain their interest.

Similarly today and tomorrow in Madrid have a lot of games that could have a significant impact on who 'goes through' even though first place was already effectively (and now literally) settled.

NickFaulks
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:57 pm

In my opinion, FIDE should have required Carlsen to confirm before the Candidates started whether or not he would be prepared to defend his title against whomever came first - "well, I'll wait to see who wins" is not a good answer. Unfortunately, the present balance of power within chess does not permit that.
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Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:16 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:12 pm

I'm not at all convinced Carlsen has decided what he is going to do yet.
The Chicken Chess Club guys' chat on this question over the first few episodes would suggest that you are technically correct - their estimate of the chances of Magnus playing another match is not 0% - but the probability they have given it is still very low.

And if what Magnus said meant anything at all, then surely Nepo winning was the least likely outcome that would have him wanting to play a match again.


Nepo's message to Magnus:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpSuq5lyTeA

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:25 pm

Jonathan Bryant wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:16 pm
Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:12 pm

I'm not at all convinced Carlsen has decided what he is going to do yet.
The Chicken Chess Club guys' chat on this question over the first few episodes would suggest that you are technically correct - their estimate of the chances of Magnus playing another match is not 0% - but the probability they have given it is still very low.

And if what Magnus said meant anything at all, then surely Nepo winning was the least likely outcome that would have him wanting to play a match again.
Unless Hikaru finishing second has any impact :?

Richard Bates
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Richard Bates » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:26 pm

I would think that one of, if not THE, major obstacle is not actually Magnus's claimed views on wanting to play further World Championship matches given the time and commitment involved.

It is that it is difficult to understand who would have any interest in hosting or funding a match against Nepo.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:27 pm

That's a funny response from Nepo to the interviewer.

I got from there to Naka's commentary on his win today, and I was a bit shocked when a .gif of Naka celebrating popped up to mark someone new subscribing to his channel... :D

It would be very appropriate for today's social media age to have a World Championship match involving Nakamura.

Not that I want Carlsen to walk away from his title! :(

Nick Burrows
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Nick Burrows » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:34 pm

At least Nepo vs Nakamura would be an interesting match!