Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

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Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:49 pm

LawrenceCooper wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:25 pm

Unless Hikaru finishing second has any impact :?
Funnily enough I did suggest to someone earlier that Nakamura finishing 2nd could increase the chances of Carlsen agreeing to play Nepo.

But then we get to Richard’s point about who would sponsor a match. I agree that it’s hard to imagine any major Western sponsor wanting to get involved.

No doubt Putin would be happy to splash some roubles (although no doubt a ‘private’ Russian sponsor would be the named donor). But a lot of the world would find that hard to stomach.

And then there’s the venue. It’s hard to imagine anyone agreeing to go to Moscow. But if not there then where?


My guess - well, idle ill-informed speculation, really - is the best chance of a match actually happening is if Ding finishes second.

But what (chess) value would that actually have?

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:55 pm

Jonathan Bryant wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:49 pm
LawrenceCooper wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:25 pm

Unless Hikaru finishing second has any impact :?
Funnily enough I did suggest to someone earlier that Nakamura finishing 2nd could increase the chances of Carlsen agreeing to play Nepo.

But then we get to Richard’s point about who would sponsor a match. I agree that it’s hard to imagine any major Western sponsor wanting to get involved.

No doubt Putin would be happy to splash some roubles (although no doubt a ‘private’ Russian sponsor would be the named donor). But a lot of the world would find that hard to stomach.

And then there’s the venue. It’s hard to imagine anyone agreeing to go to Moscow. But if not there then where?


My guess - well, idle ill-informed speculation, really - is the best chance of a match actually happening is if Ding finishes second.

But what (chess) value would that actually have?
Maybe America could sign up Nepo and then play the match in the U.S.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:13 pm

Richard Bates wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:26 pm
It is that it is difficult to understand who would have any interest in hosting or funding a match against Nepo.
We shouldn't forget that Nepo was one time scramble move away from taking the lead last time, which might have led to an entirely different match.

Separately, Peter Heine Nielsen may be conflicted here. Given his present political ambitions, it would help him to look like a big man if he could get Nepo banned from a WC challenge to Carlsen, on account of his unfortunate place of birth. But is that what his employer really wants?
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Geoff Chandler » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:15 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:12 pm

It could even be that Nepo's impressive showing here has made him more likely to play a repeat match, rather than less.

Hi Matt,

Nepo was just as impressive last candidates he lost one game. That was a last round game v Ding when
again, like here, Nepo won that candidates with a round to to spare. (I expect this last rounder to be a draw.)

As Nick mentioned Nepo blew game 6 in mutual T.T.
(the marathon game that last longer than the entire series of 'Queens Gambit')
That loss shattered him. He could not pick up the reins to get back into the match and fell...badly.

But, following the advice of the great Nat King Cole he has picked himself up, dusted himself off...and here we are again.
(that last bit is from Status Quo) This time he is wiser and although I think Carlsen will win it I'll be putting £10.00 on Nepo.
(the odds will be good)

Why? Staying with musical lyrics; ''The only pleasure I get, when placing a bet, is when I lose.' Gilbert O'Sullivan.

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:16 pm

Nepomniachtchi actually lost two games in the last Candidates - he also lost in round 7 to Vachier-Lagrave, which briefly gave the latter the lead on tie-break.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Geoff Chandler » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:22 pm

Yes Jack, bad wording. by me. 'Not counting the last round game.' ( I won't edit it. touch post!)
But he did wrap it up with a round to spare. (I think...)

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:38 pm

Well whatever today's result, this time round will be very much *more* impressive for Nepo.

And some nay-sayers had the "it would have been different if the tournament hadn't been stopped half way through" line last time.

Not now.
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by AustinElliott » Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:23 pm

Nepo is, of course, automatically entitled to Israeli citizenship, like quite a lot of chess-players from Russian and the former Soviet republics past and present.

Given that Nepo is playing the Candidates, but playing under an FIDE neutral flag, and made his feelings about the Ukraine invasion clear at the start, I don't see the politics preventing Nepo playing a WC Match. The sponsorship problem is a much more significant barrier. But do we really think there is *no* chess-interested govt or billionaire that would be interested? Not in Europe or the US, perhaps, but that's not the entire world. The gulf states strike me as an obvious potential sponsor/venue, like last time.

Personally I think Carlsen will play, if someone offers the sponsorship and hosting. Various points. One is that Nepo has shown he is currently the 'best of the rest', quite conclusively so in this tournament. Who is a more credible challenger to Magnus? Not Firouzja, yet, on this showing.

Second, the first match was only scheduled for 14 games, which (as many people, super GMs included. have said) gives limited chance for a player who takes a crushing loss to recover. As it indeed proved. And as it was they only played 11 games. A second 14-game match would take us up to a game tally approaching or past the old 'historic' 24-game matches, cf. Fischer-Spassky and the ones before. Both players know the history, Carlsen particularly.

Continuing on that theme, despite the conclusive score of the first match, the overall lifetime score in classical games between the two is still only 6 to 4 for Magnus, with 18 draws. You could argue that another convincing match victory is needed to reinforce Carlsen's superiority. He may be a bit tired of playing World Championship matches, but one doubts he is tired of proving he is the best.

You could also argue that playing the same opponent again reduces the amount of prep the two players have to do, since much of what they prepared for the previous match likely remains unused. See e.g. the benefit Nepo has been deriving from it in the Candidates tournament.

Here's an idea. Perhaps they could play in Qatar in the first three weeks of November, before the World Cup?

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by LawrenceCooper » Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:46 pm

Emil Sutovsky has just been interviewed on chess.com Twitch channel and mentioned that there is no format in place for the next world championship match and they have had discussions with Magnus on this subject. Whilst they wouldn't allow him to dictate terms they are keen to keep him involved in the cycle.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by AustinElliott » Mon Jul 04, 2022 4:38 pm

A surprisingly lively final round, given the tournament winner is already decided. Only Nakamura and Ding playing the kind of cautious stuff you might have expected.

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:32 pm

AustinElliott wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 4:38 pm
A surprisingly lively final round, given the tournament winner is already decided.
But that doesn't mean that the players in the next WC match are decided.
Only Nakamura and Ding playing the kind of cautious stuff you might have expected.
Not so fast!
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:42 pm

Duda and Nepo draw to conclude one of the all-time great tournament performances.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:47 pm

Nakamura imploding against Ding. Firouzja also better now against Carauana, so we might get three decisive games.
(Radjabov is crushing Rapport.)

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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:52 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:47 pm
(Radjabov is crushing Rapport.)
It was of course entirely Rapport's decision to spice up the game, and in the process he may have gifted third place to Radjabov. For several reasons, I hope that is inconsequential.
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Jonathan Bryant
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Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:54 pm

AustinElliott wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 4:38 pm
A surprisingly lively final round ....
Apparently the prize fund is allocated on points scored to a significant degree. Which is quite a good thing to do if you want people to keep playing hard to the end.