FIDE Grand Prix 3, Berlin 21 March to 4 April 2022

[Mick Norris]

website still looks weird

FIDE

The draw ceremony, held over Zoom, was chaired by the Chief Arbiter Klaus Deventer who divided the players into groups via randomized selection procedure.

Pool A:

Levon Aronian (USA), 2785
Hikaru Nakamura, (USA), 2750
Dmitry Andreikin (FIDE), 2719
Grigoriy Oparin (FIDE), 2674

Pool B:

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (Azerbaijan), 2776
Leinier Dominguez (USA), 2756
Daniil Dubov (FIDE), 2711
Vincent Keymer (Germany), 2655

Pool C:

Wesley So (USA), 2778
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (France), 2761
Sam Shankland (USA), 2704
Alexandr Predke (FIDE), 2682

Pool D:

Anish Giri (Netherlands), 2771
Nikita Vitiugov (FIDE), 2726
Yu Yangyi (China), 2713
Amin Tabatabaei (Iran), 2623

GP standings and tiebreaks with a reminder that the semis are:

Winner A v Winner B (possibly Naka/Aronian/Andreikin v Dominguez)
Winner C v Winner D (possibly MVL/So/Shankland v Giri)

[Tim Harding]

What this surely means is that Rapport is certain to be in the Candidates?
If you didn't know that the draw was randomised
(as claimed at https://en.chessbase.com/post/pools-for ... -announced)
you might think it was rigged to bring about that outcome.

Before the draw, the main threat to Rapport (who has 20 GP points) was that the second Berlin event would be won by either Aronian or Andreikin, thereby reaching 23, beating Nakamura in the final, as Hikaru would then also have 23.
But now only one of his three chief rivals can score more than 4 in Berlin.

If Hikaru wins in Berlin again he has 26 and Rapport 20, the rest nowhere.
If Andreikin or Aronian win, they have 23, Hikaru at best 17.

Finally if the winner comes from one of the other pools, say Giri (but could be MVL or Dominguez) then that person has 20 with a win and a losing semifinal, same as Rapport, so they would be the qualifiers.
On this scenario, either Andreikin or Aronian could also get to 20 by being the losing finalist, but the tiebreak rules says that tournament wins are supreme (13+7 beats 10+10).

Of course there are other permutations if somebody else wins in Berlin but I think Rapport can start his Candidates preparations now.
No doubt somebody here will correct me if I am wrong...

[LawrenceCooper]

What this surely means is that Rapport is certain to be in the Candidates?
If you didn't know that the draw was randomised
(as claimed at https://en.chessbase.com/post/pools-for ... -announced)
you might think it was rigged to bring about that outcome.

Before the draw, the main threat to Rapport (who has 20 GP points) was that the second Berlin event would be won by either Aronian or Andreikin, thereby reaching 23, beating Nakamura in the final, as Hikaru would then also have 23.
But now only one of his three chief rivals can score more than 4 in Berlin.

If Hikaru wins in Berlin again he has 26 and Rapport 20, the rest nowhere.
If Andreikin or Aronian win, they have 23, Hikaru at best 17.

Finally if the winner comes from one of the other pools, say Giri (but could be MVL or Dominguez) then that person has 20 with a win and a losing semifinal, same as Rapport, so they would be the qualifiers.
On this scenario, either Andreikin or Aronian could also get to 20 by being the losing finalist, but the tiebreak rules says that tournament wins are supreme (13+7 beats 10+10).

Of course there are other permutations if somebody else wins in Berlin but I think Rapport can start his Candidates preparations now.
No doubt somebody here will correct me if I am wrong...

Is it possible to get 3 (13+7)?

[JustinHorton]

We did this on the previous thread, but is Tim overlooking that Nakamura can reach 20 or 23 while Giri or MVL wins the tournament and reaches 20?

[Tim Harding]

We did this on the previous thread, but is Tim overlooking that Nakamura can reach 20 or 23 while Giri or MVL wins the tournament and reaches 20?

You are right. I was away at the weekend without a computer so I didn't see what was said in the other thread.
There is a possibility that Giri, MVL (OR Leinier Dominguez surely?) could beat Nakamura in the final, in which case it will come down to counting who scored more points/ more classical wins in their two tournaments, a nightmare to calculate though it will be easier once Berlin gets under way.

If Nakamura doesn't make the final, Rapport is definitely safe, I think.

[LawrenceCooper]

We did this on the previous thread, but is Tim overlooking that Nakamura can reach 20 or 23 while Giri or MVL wins the tournament and reaches 20?

You are right. I was away at the weekend without a computer so I didn't see what was said in the other thread.
There is a possibility that Giri, MVL (OR Leinier Dominguez surely?) could beat Nakamura in the final, in which case it will come down to counting who scored more points/ more classical wins in their two tournaments, a nightmare to calculate though it will be easier once Berlin gets under way.

If Nakamura doesn't make the final, Rapport is definitely safe, I think.

I wasn't sure what happened if three finish with 13+7 but from what you say you think that Rapport would be in the top two.

[Mick Norris]

Once again, Dominguez would play Nakamura in the semi not the final

[LawrenceCooper]

Esipenko to replace Andreikin.
https://twitter.com/FIDE_chess/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

[JustinHorton]

Oh that's interesting.

Here's Mick's post on the qualification requirements prior to the withdrawal. What difference will it make?

What time's the kickoff on Tuesday?

[Mick Norris]

Well, it means Andreikin can't qualify!

Esipenko has 4 points, so he can't catch Rapport who has 20; he can reach 17 by winning it (as could So & Shankland) , but I'd be surprised if that were enough, though it would have the favourable tiebreak of winning 1 event (and he'd have prevented Naka reaching more than 17 with the same favourable tiebreak)

Standings

chess by the numbers

3 pm UK time I think

[Mick Norris]

chess24 live seems to indicate it starts at 2 pm today UK time

Aronian - Nakamura first up

Shankland - So too

[JustinHorton]

The big sensation early doors is that Predke has marmalised MVL. Aronian is doing the same to Nakamura, with some deep preparation (check the clock times for the first twenty moves) which has potential consequences not just for both of them but for Rapport, since I think he's guaranteed his Candidates spot if Nakamura doesn't win the group.

Other games featuring the leading contenders: Yu played the Murey line* in the Petroff against Giri but looks likely to be rewarded with a loss, while Domínguez is allegedly a touch better against Dubov but (after his 27th) in horrid time trouble and frankly you might well take White's position anyway, inadequate compensation or no.

[*]

[JustinHorton]

...and it turned out very differently! Giri (in what to be fair must have looked a horribly dangerous position) went wrong and was glad to get a draw. Meanwhile Dubov went astray in Domínguez's time trouble, got it back level and then played a careless move after which there were no more chances.

Among games not so far mentioned, Vitiugov beating Tabatabaei (not yet sealed, strictly speaking) seems likely to be the only decisive result. (Vitiugov could still qualify for the Candidates, I think, but only if he won here and a remarkable series of other results occurred.)

[LawrenceCooper]

Aronian - Nakamura first up

Won by Aronian in 65 moves.

[Mick Norris]

The big sensation early doors is that Predke has marmalised MVL. Aronian is doing the same to Nakamura, with some deep preparation (check the clock times for the first twenty moves) which has potential consequences not just for both of them but for Rapport, since I think he's guaranteed his Candidates spot if Nakamura doesn't win the group.

Other games featuring the leading contenders: Yu played the Murey line* in the Petroff against Giri but looks likely to be rewarded with a loss, while Domínguez is allegedly a touch better against Dubov but (after his 27th) in horrid time trouble and frankly you might well take White's position anyway, inadequate compensation or no.

[*]

I think that's basically correct about Rapport; everyone but Naka has to win the event to overtake Rapport, and Naka has to reach the semis

For Aronian, the potential tiebreak behind Rapport comes into force if he loses the semi, and 1 of MVL/Giri/Dominguez loses the final without any of the other 2 winning it; his win today further improves his Game Point total from standard play, which was already ahead of everyone but Rapport

If Aronian doesn't qualify from the GP, he is currently in the running for the rating place now Karjakin is banned, and has gained 4.5 rating points with today's win

There's a long way to go