FIDE Grand Prix 2, Belgrade, 28 Feb to March 14 2022

[IM Jack Rudd]

Yes, I assume it means that only the winner of that group can still qualify for the Candidates (maybe Oparin will win it!)

Not necessarily - if Andreikin beats Rapport in the final, either he or Nakamura can get 17 points by finishing runner-up in the group, which may be enough if other results go their way.

[JustinHorton]

Indeed if they finished first and second, wouldn't that put both of them ahead of Rapport, since one of them would be ahead on points, and the other on tie-break since both would have won a tournament?

(I think that if Rapport wins, the only way he can fail to qualify is if one of Giri, Domínguez and MVL wins in Berlin, while Nakamura comes second. In that event it would come down to whether the Berlin winner had accumulated enough game points to overhaul Rapport. Am I right?)

[Mick Norris]

Tie breaks are summarised and shown here

Tie-breaks, in order, are: tournament first places (TF), tournament second places (TS), game points in standard time control games (GP), and game wins in standard time control games (GW). If a tie persists, the final tiebreaker is drawing of lots.

[Mick Norris]

chess24

The plane carrying Dmitry Andreikin’s family arrived in Belgrade 7 hours later than scheduled, so that instead of sleeping before the final of the FIDE Grand Prix he’d been up almost all night.

The fact that the 2nd leg of the FIDE Grand Prix was held in Belgrade, Serbia proved fortunate, at least from an organisational point of view. Serbia is not in the European Union, and has not imposed sanctions on Russia, but its airlines still have the right to fly through European airspace to Russia.
That’s meant that Moscow-Belgrade has become a major route out of Russia in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with extra planes added each day. Dmitry Andreikin’s wife Svetlana, who has been vocal in opposition to Vladimir Putin since before the first invasion in 2014, was flying to Belgrade to join her husband on Friday night. The flight was supposed to arrive at around 10pm, but, likely because the same plane was forced to turn back on its earlier flight from Belgrade to Moscow because of a bomb threat, it only arrived at 5am.

[Matt Mackenzie]

He did well to draw the first game without much trouble, then. Current encounter looking quite balanced too.

[Mick Norris]

Yes, both a little short of time; a draw wouldn't improve the 3rd tiebreak for either player

[Mick Norris]

Rapport looking like he's winning now

EDIT - he's won, so he's up to 20 GP points

[Reg Clucas]

Wow, that looked every inch a draw. Great psychology from Rapport, running his time down so low before rejecting the repetition - Andreikin must have thought he was going to take the draw.

[Mick Norris]

Rapport has 20 overall points, 1 GP win, and 11 game points in standard time control games

Aronian & Andreikin have to win to overtake Rapport, nothing less, and in that case Rapport would qualify ahead of Naka anyway

To overtake Rapport:
MVL needs to win while scoring at least 7 in standard time control games
Dominguez needs to win while scoring at least 6.5 in standard time control games
Giri needs to win while scoring at least 6 in standard time control games

If Dominguez wins, Naka won't reach the final, so he'd have to win group A before losing the semi while scoring at least 5.5 in standard time control games to overtake Rapport

If MVL or Giri wins, then Naka could be losing finalist, or he'd have to win group A before losing the semi while scoring at least 5.5 in standard time control games to overtake Rapport

[Jonathan Rogers]

The most likely way for Rapport to be overtaken is surely for Naka to win his group and lose the final. That still puts him ahead of Rapport. Then any of MVL, Dominguez or Giri might pip Rapport too, by winning the final, achieving the game points specified by Mick above.

As far as I can see, Rapport can relax early doors if Naka doesn't win his group, or if none of the other three make the other semi-final. There must be a fair chance of one of those coming to pass.

[Mick Norris]

chess24 report

Richard Rapport has a 96% chance of playing in the FIDE Candidates Tournament after defeating Dmitry Andreikin in the second game of the final to win the Belgrade FIDE Grand Prix. The Hungarian no. 1 described his decision to play on with two minutes on his clock rather than take a draw as taking destiny into his own hands and a “leap of faith”. It was richly rewarded, as Dmitry Andreikin, who commented, “I can only applaud him”, went astray in complications that neither player could fully fathom.

chess.com