The precedents are discouraging
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:55 pm
No doubt more reliable others have already commented on this aspect of world championship matches (it seems to ring a bell), but no challenger has ever won from when trailing at the half-way stage (obviously thinking of fixed matches and in this case only starting post WW2, when people were sober).
Bronstein and Karpov (1987) came closest, recovering from one down to tie the match. Topalov did the same against Kramnik in 2006 before going on to lose the tiebreak which had by then been introduced (no doubt the same would have been the most logical conclusion to his unsuccessful challenge against Anand, to whom he also trailed at half-time, in 2010). In fact the challenger even later took the lead in the first three mentioned matches, but as they say "Caissa eventually decided otherwise".
In fact only twice has a challenger won from merely being level at the half-way stage: Spassky 1969 and Kasparov 1985. Whereas Smyslov 1957, Tal 1960, Petrosian 1963, Fischer, Kramnik 2000, Anand 2009 and Carlsen 2013 were all ahead already at the half-way stage, often by some distance. And the same with Botvinnik when he was successfully challenging as the deposed champion.
If I could think of something to cheer up those rooting for Nepo, I would say it! But long odds are certainly looking justified now. The best that can be said is probably that we cannot be confident that anyone else would be doing any better. Ding Liren in pre-Covid form might have been a different matter, but as GK likes to say, history does not recognise the subjunctive tense.
Bronstein and Karpov (1987) came closest, recovering from one down to tie the match. Topalov did the same against Kramnik in 2006 before going on to lose the tiebreak which had by then been introduced (no doubt the same would have been the most logical conclusion to his unsuccessful challenge against Anand, to whom he also trailed at half-time, in 2010). In fact the challenger even later took the lead in the first three mentioned matches, but as they say "Caissa eventually decided otherwise".
In fact only twice has a challenger won from merely being level at the half-way stage: Spassky 1969 and Kasparov 1985. Whereas Smyslov 1957, Tal 1960, Petrosian 1963, Fischer, Kramnik 2000, Anand 2009 and Carlsen 2013 were all ahead already at the half-way stage, often by some distance. And the same with Botvinnik when he was successfully challenging as the deposed champion.
If I could think of something to cheer up those rooting for Nepo, I would say it! But long odds are certainly looking justified now. The best that can be said is probably that we cannot be confident that anyone else would be doing any better. Ding Liren in pre-Covid form might have been a different matter, but as GK likes to say, history does not recognise the subjunctive tense.