The precedents are discouraging

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Jonathan Rogers
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The precedents are discouraging

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:55 pm

No doubt more reliable others have already commented on this aspect of world championship matches (it seems to ring a bell), but no challenger has ever won from when trailing at the half-way stage (obviously thinking of fixed matches and in this case only starting post WW2, when people were sober).

Bronstein and Karpov (1987) came closest, recovering from one down to tie the match. Topalov did the same against Kramnik in 2006 before going on to lose the tiebreak which had by then been introduced (no doubt the same would have been the most logical conclusion to his unsuccessful challenge against Anand, to whom he also trailed at half-time, in 2010). In fact the challenger even later took the lead in the first three mentioned matches, but as they say "Caissa eventually decided otherwise".

In fact only twice has a challenger won from merely being level at the half-way stage: Spassky 1969 and Kasparov 1985. Whereas Smyslov 1957, Tal 1960, Petrosian 1963, Fischer, Kramnik 2000, Anand 2009 and Carlsen 2013 were all ahead already at the half-way stage, often by some distance. And the same with Botvinnik when he was successfully challenging as the deposed champion.

If I could think of something to cheer up those rooting for Nepo, I would say it! But long odds are certainly looking justified now. The best that can be said is probably that we cannot be confident that anyone else would be doing any better. Ding Liren in pre-Covid form might have been a different matter, but as GK likes to say, history does not recognise the subjunctive tense.

Nick Ivell
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Nick Ivell » Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:39 pm

Subjunctive is a mood rather than a tense, but I agree with the general drift of this.

I can't see Nepo winning. I can't see any of 'Magnus's generation' beating him.

It will be someone younger. Maybe a person of recently acquired French citizenship?

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MJMcCready
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by MJMcCready » Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:41 pm

History doesn't always repeat itself but it doesn't look good. I didn't fancy his chances before the match, and certainly don't now.

Graham Borrowdale
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Graham Borrowdale » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:44 am

Got to agree with all of this. If the challenger was the real champion in waiting they would probably have made their play in the first half of the match. All of Carlsen’s challengers have looked like ‘first among equals’ (of the candidates), and we will have to wait for a younger challenger, as Nick says.

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:07 pm

Hmmm. I wouldn't write the rest of Magnus's generation off just yet.

(You could have made similar comments about Smyslov after the 1954 match.)

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:37 pm

Well, they certainly are now.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:44 pm

IM Jack Rudd wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:07 pm
Hmmm. I wouldn't write the rest of Magnus's generation off just yet.

(You could have made similar comments about Smyslov after the 1954 match.)
Do you mean no one from Botvinnik's generation, only for smyslov to prove them sort-of wrong in 1957?

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:13 pm

I mean that you could have plausibly said, after the 1948 pentangular and 1954 match, that Smyslov had missed his chances. Only for him to take the next one.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:27 am

Smyslov is perhaps the only challenger to be third time lucky (if you count 1948) and Spassky the only one to be second time lucky. So it doesn't happen often. Both were playing when time was on their side. 35 years ago, in a book on world champions, Hartston said that the average age of newly crowned world champions was 36, and Smyslov was exactly that. Times have changed!

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: The precedents are discouraging

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:43 am

With apologies for forgetting Anand... maybe he doesn't count because he unseated a different champion second time around! and was sort-of world champion in other versions already!