English Chess Forum

Mick Norris wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:43 am

Angus French wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:48 pm

JustinHorton wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:50 pm

Giri would need three and a half, I think?

Ah, OK.

I've gone for Nepo; the leader (or co-leader) at this stage has won the last 4 candidates as pointed out by Douglas Griffin

If he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask

I think this is an good way of thinking about it, but I also think it can be a bit misleading. I am not sure that Nepomniachtchi is the type of player who will draw out and I expect him to lose one of the last four and be psychologically strong in dealing with this setback. So my question then is, if Nepomniachtchi scores 2/4 without drawing all his games does he still have a greater than 50% chance of winning?
I went for the field on the basis that a couple of the players seem to have gone all in and might well be on tilt now, so that one the chasers can rack up a big scores in the last four rounds.

I went for Nepo as he's leading, but my predictions are usually wrong, so I hope I haven't ruined his chances. This has been an interesting event as I'm not really bothered who wins, usually I'm cheering somebody on, which is way too stressful.

Matthew Turner wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:41 am

So my question then is, if Nepomniachtchi scores 2/4 without drawing all his games does he still have a greater than 50% chance of winning?
I went for the field on the basis that a couple of the players seem to have gone all in and might well be on tilt now, so that one the chasers can rack up a big scores in the last four rounds.

My model suggests:
4 draws - Nepo wins 70% of the time
2 White wins / 2 Black losses - Nepo wins 99%+ of the time
Win vs Ding / loss vs Caruana - Nepo wins 40%
Draw vs Caruana, Ding / win vs MVL / loss vs Wang Hao - Nepo wins 95%

So essentially for someone other than Nepo to have a realistic chance of winning, you either need Caruana to beat him this round, or for him to score less than 2/4 in the remaining games.

30% isn't a realistic chance of winning?

JustinHorton wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:39 am

30% isn't a realistic chance of winning?

Fair challenge - yes if Nepo draws all 4 then there’s a decent chance of someone overtaking him.

Matt Fletcher wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:28 am

Matthew Turner wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:41 am

So my question then is, if Nepomniachtchi scores 2/4 without drawing all his games does he still have a greater than 50% chance of winning?
I went for the field on the basis that a couple of the players seem to have gone all in and might well be on tilt now, so that one the chasers can rack up a big scores in the last four rounds.

My model suggests:
4 draws - Nepo wins 70% of the time
2 White wins / 2 Black losses - Nepo wins 99%+ of the time
Win vs Ding / loss vs Caruana - Nepo wins 40%
Draw vs Caruana, Ding / win vs MVL / loss vs Wang Hao - Nepo wins 95%

So essentially for someone other than Nepo to have a realistic chance of winning, you either need Caruana to beat him this round, or for him to score less than 2/4 in the remaining games.

I am not sure that this covers all the possibilities. In the extreme case of Nepomniachtchi losing to Caruana and MVL and beating Ding and Wang Hao, I guess he has 25% or less chance of victory.
Basically if Nepomniachtchi loses to Caruana or MVL (even if he does well in the other games) he isn't a firm favourite.

Matthew Turner wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:02 am

Matt Fletcher wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:28 am

Matthew Turner wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:41 am

So my question then is, if Nepomniachtchi scores 2/4 without drawing all his games does he still have a greater than 50% chance of winning?
I went for the field on the basis that a couple of the players seem to have gone all in and might well be on tilt now, so that one the chasers can rack up a big scores in the last four rounds.

My model suggests:
4 draws - Nepo wins 70% of the time
2 White wins / 2 Black losses - Nepo wins 99%+ of the time
Win vs Ding / loss vs Caruana - Nepo wins 40%
Draw vs Caruana, Ding / win vs MVL / loss vs Wang Hao - Nepo wins 95%

So essentially for someone other than Nepo to have a realistic chance of winning, you either need Caruana to beat him this round, or for him to score less than 2/4 in the remaining games.

I am not sure that this covers all the possibilities. In the extreme case of Nepomniachtchi losing to Caruana and MVL and beating Ding and Wang Hao, I guess he has 25% or less chance of victory.
Basically if Nepomniachtchi loses to Caruana or MVL (even if he does well in the other games) he isn't a firm favourite.

No it doesn’t cover all the possibilities as there are quite a few still! Just wanted to give an idea.

Can I change my vote? It looks like it is going to plan for Nepomniachtchi at the moment

I now have Nepo at 2:1 against the field - 68% chance of winning.

Caruana is still second favourite- Giri’s chances have gone up to 10% with today’s win.

https://twitter.com/wmiltti/status/1385 ... 51813?s=21

In the event, Nepo it was - his nerves held up very well (the "dead rubber" final game doesn't really count)