Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
-
- Posts: 10364
- Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
- Location: Somewhere you're not
Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Obviously Nepo is favourite, but I found myself pondering whether it was more likely that he would win than not. What do you reckon? I reckon it's a close call. (For the record, the odds the bookies are offering on his winning seem to be a little less attractive than this: currently 5/3 on.)
Feel free to explain your reasons. Poll closes after 24 hours, i.e. at about half-eight your time Thursday evening.
Feel free to explain your reasons. Poll closes after 24 hours, i.e. at about half-eight your time Thursday evening.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
-
- Posts: 2151
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Black against Ding in the last round could be awkward and I think Caruana will fight. But I’ve gone for Nepo. I think a point lead with four rounds to go is a decent advantage and I think he'll hold his nerve. If he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three and that’s a tough ask. My vote only slightly influenced by wanting to see a Carlsen vs. Nepo World Championship match.
-
- Posts: 5207
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
- Location: Millom, Cumbria
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
If his nerves are good - and given what is at stake, that is quite an if! - I expect Nepo should do it.
I also think he will hope to win at least one more game.
I also think he will hope to win at least one more game.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
-
- Posts: 10364
- Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
- Location: Somewhere you're not
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Giri would need three and a half, I think?Angus French wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pmIf he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three
I voted for the others, the potential for nerves being the deciding factor.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
-
- Posts: 2151
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Ah, OK.JustinHorton wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:50 pmGiri would need three and a half, I think?Angus French wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pmIf he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three
-
- Posts: 1520
- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2016 4:15 pm
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
I'd still take the field against Nepo now, albeit with him now as a strong favourite. Nepo Black against Ding on the last day when he is under huge pressure and Ding is not puts me in mind of the 2013 finish. So still a long way to go.
-
- Posts: 10331
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
- Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
I've gone for Nepo; the leader (or co-leader) at this stage has won the last 4 candidates as pointed out by Douglas GriffinAngus French wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:48 pmAh, OK.JustinHorton wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:50 pmGiri would need three and a half, I think?Angus French wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pmIf he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three
If he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask
Any postings on here represent my personal views
-
- Posts: 8453
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
I agree. If you calculate the probabilities on some theoretical basis, then discount the answer a bit ( or even a lot ) because big accidents happen, the answer must still be well north of 50%.Mick Norris wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:43 amIf he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.
-
- Posts: 10364
- Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
- Location: Somewhere you're not
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
For what it's worth Matt Fletcher's model has 57% Nepo, though I do not think psychological elements are factored in.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
-
- Posts: 2318
- Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 8:46 pm
- Location: Dublin, Ireland
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Obviously, it will be much easier to call when we know the result of Nepo v Caruana tomorrow.
Will Nepo try to kill the game for a safe draw? In a big fight I would back Caruana despite his having Black. If Nepo wins that game he is basically home (though I agree losing to Ding could be a danger), so he may try to win; a lot will depend on the opening preparation of them both.
If Caruana can only draw then I think the one player with a chance is MVL; the problem is that his play has not been up to his standard in the first half. But he has two things going for him: a) favourable tie-break having beaten Nepo in round 7; b) the easiest run-in by far.
MVL has to hold his game with Black against Nepo, but his other three games are definitely winnable:
Black against Grischuk because of G's crazy time-handling and rather unconvincing play;
White against Alekseenko because of the colours and MVL is clearly the stronger player;
White against Wang Hao, again because of the colours and relative strength.
Both Alekseenko and Wang have had bad confidence-shaking losses this week and MVL will especially be targeting wins in those games.
So it's not inconceivable that MVL could score 3.5 from the last four and I think he has an excellent chance of 3/4.
PS: I voted for the field.
Will Nepo try to kill the game for a safe draw? In a big fight I would back Caruana despite his having Black. If Nepo wins that game he is basically home (though I agree losing to Ding could be a danger), so he may try to win; a lot will depend on the opening preparation of them both.
If Caruana can only draw then I think the one player with a chance is MVL; the problem is that his play has not been up to his standard in the first half. But he has two things going for him: a) favourable tie-break having beaten Nepo in round 7; b) the easiest run-in by far.
MVL has to hold his game with Black against Nepo, but his other three games are definitely winnable:
Black against Grischuk because of G's crazy time-handling and rather unconvincing play;
White against Alekseenko because of the colours and MVL is clearly the stronger player;
White against Wang Hao, again because of the colours and relative strength.
Both Alekseenko and Wang have had bad confidence-shaking losses this week and MVL will especially be targeting wins in those games.
So it's not inconceivable that MVL could score 3.5 from the last four and I think he has an excellent chance of 3/4.
PS: I voted for the field.
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
-
- Posts: 5249
- Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
- Location: Croydon
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
Fatigue undoubtedly played a part on that day. Owing to the peculiar circumstances, it should be far less of an issue this time.Paul Cooksey wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:25 amNepo Black against Ding on the last day when he is under huge pressure and Ding is not puts me in mind of the 2013 finish.
-
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2011 9:42 pm
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
No psychology, just ratings and a few assumptions on % draws, White advantage etc.JustinHorton wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:07 amFor what it's worth Matt Fletcher's model has 57% Nepo, though I do not think psychological elements are factored in.
I think my model is slightly less optimistic about Nepo’s chances than others I’ve seen though apparently it matches very well with the betting markets (this is a fluke - in previous rounds it wasn’t as close)
-
- Posts: 10364
- Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
- Location: Somewhere you're not
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
We have a tie!
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
-
- Posts: 10331
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
- Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
You need a tiebreak
Any postings on here represent my personal views
-
- Posts: 1838
- Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:16 am
Re: Four rounds to go: would you bet on Nepo or the rest?
I went for the field.