I think this is an good way of thinking about it, but I also think it can be a bit misleading. I am not sure that Nepomniachtchi is the type of player who will draw out and I expect him to lose one of the last four and be psychologically strong in dealing with this setback. So my question then is, if Nepomniachtchi scores 2/4 without drawing all his games does he still have a greater than 50% chance of winning?Mick Norris wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:43 amI've gone for Nepo; the leader (or co-leader) at this stage has won the last 4 candidates as pointed out by Douglas Griffin
If he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask
I went for the field on the basis that a couple of the players seem to have gone all in and might well be on tilt now, so that one the chasers can rack up a big scores in the last four rounds.