Wijk aan Zee 2021

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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:13 pm

I didn't post expressing Paul's sentiments, because I was unable to find a way of expressing it as politely as he has done.

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MJMcCready
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by MJMcCready » Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:34 pm

What difference does it make how you express it, its just your opinion. I did put my point across with a certain bias but that's not been picked up I see, so best left there.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:20 am

MJMcCready wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:28 pm
It looked like some players were just going through the motions of turning up, getting paid and going home
Players who do this tend to score close to zero, or achieve a string of short draws if that option is available to the,
MJMcCready wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:28 pm
rather than show a real desire to win the thing
How many players who had a meaningful chance to "win the thing" failed to give it a go? In most all-play-alls the real contenders are a minority of the participants - the rest just try and do their best.
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:44 am

JustinHorton wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:20 am
In most all-play-alls the real contenders are a minority of the participants - the rest just try and do their best.
This is nonsense, because momentum is very important in all-play-alls and things can change relatively quickly. Who where 'real contenders' at the start of Wijk? Duda? Grandelius? Jorden Van Foreest? Two rounds in and it is all change.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:51 am

Cool, if you think it's nonsense we could undertake a statistical survey of all-play-alls and see what we found
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:55 am

Good idea, but I am not sure how we judge who are 'real contenders', so perhaps you could say who were 'real contenders' at the start of the most recent elite event so I have an idea of how it works.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:57 am

I dunno, how shall we guess who are "the real contenders for the title when the next football season starts
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:01 am

I am not sure about switching to football, but OK. So if you say who were the real contenders for the Premier League for lets say the last 5 seasons.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:10 am

Well let us say that an answer is that most of the clubs neither were nor thought they were, that this is obvious enough and admits to far more confirmatory examples than exceptions.
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:14 am

I don't really understand this, because if there are exceptions then surely these exceptions must have had meaningful chances in other years but just didn't win, so how then do we know who are real contenders?

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:15 am

(Talking of examples, obviously these discussions are far better carried out statistically than via individual examples, but I can't help observing than my local club has been in the top division of Spanish football for two of the past three seasons, having never reached that level before. Absolutely nobody thinks or thought that they might be contenders for the title, though they might on either occasion have done rather better than they have.)
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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:18 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:14 am
I don't really understand this, because if there are exceptions then surely these exceptions must have had meaningful chances in other years but just didn't win, so how then do we know who are real contenders?
And yet we do understand that in statistics there are such things as outliers and we do understand that sometimes long-odds events occur and we do understand that long-odds events remain long-odds nevertheless.
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Matthew Turner
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by Matthew Turner » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:22 am

So what do you understand by your term 'meaningful chance' then?

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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by John McKenna » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:32 am

I do not think the odds on an all-Dutch final at Wijk were as long as some think they were before the event.

It was not a normal tournamemt.

These are exceptional times in otb chess and even on the soccer fields, as well, with no crowds in stadia.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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JustinHorton
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Re: Wijk aan Zee 2021

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:40 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:22 am
So what do you understand by your term 'meaningful chance' then?
I'm not sure this is an answerable question, unless we want to be discussing the precise borders of "meaningful" from here unto eternity. I think it's an inexact concept, as most things in language are.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

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