2024 FIDE Candidates Toronto April 3-23

[Paolo Casaschi]

Carlsen

Carlsen feels the eight-player field can be split into two, with the "old guys" considered favorites against the young guys.

Nakamura and Caruana are the best and most consistent players there. If anybody else wins, it would be a bit of a surprise. If Alireza wins, it would be surprising, but not shocking. If any of the other four wins, that would be a shock.

Something is amiss.
Nepo has qualified from the candidates twice already, I would not be surprised if he wins again this year. Nepo is my personal favorite, with Caruana close second; Nakamura way behind, even Alireza has better chances than Nakamura in my opinion.
Also, why “any of the other four”… is Carlsen leaving Abasov out of the contest completely or the plan in case Abasov wins is an immediate disqualification because of obvious cheating?

[LawrenceCooper]

Carlsen

Carlsen feels the eight-player field can be split into two, with the "old guys" considered favorites against the young guys.

Nakamura and Caruana are the best and most consistent players there. If anybody else wins, it would be a bit of a surprise. If Alireza wins, it would be surprising, but not shocking. If any of the other four wins, that would be a shock.

Something is amiss.
Nepo has qualified from the candidates twice already, I would not be surprised if he wins again this year. Nepo is my personal favorite, with Caruana close second; Nakamura way behind, even Alireza has better chances than Nakamura in my opinion.
Also, why “any of the other four”… is Carlsen leaving Abasov out of the contest completely or the plan in case Abasov wins is an immediate disqualification because of obvious cheating?

Having listened to his interview with David Howell he answered all your points. He ranked Nepo as a contender (third favourite) but expressed doubts over his form since he last won the Candidates, Abasov hadn't shown anything other than the world cup to make him think that he could challenge. He rated Fabiano & Hikaru as favourites which on their form in 2023 (and I would also add previous experience) is hard to argue with. He did talk up Alireza's chance of a good tournament but not enough to win.

Of the three Indians he rated Gukesh as the least stable and his potential score could be anywhere from +2 to -5.

[LawrenceCooper]

Carlsen

Something is amiss.
Nepo has qualified from the candidates twice already, I would not be surprised if he wins again this year. Nepo is my personal favorite, with Caruana close second; Nakamura way behind, even Alireza has better chances than Nakamura in my opinion.
Also, why “any of the other four”… is Carlsen leaving Abasov out of the contest completely or the plan in case Abasov wins is an immediate disqualification because of obvious cheating?

Having listened to his interview with David Howell he answered all your points. He ranked Nepo as a contender (third favourite) but expressed doubts over his form since he last won the Candidates, Abasov hadn't shown anything other than the world cup to make him think that he could challenge. He rated Fabiano & Hikaru as favourites which on their form in 2023 (and I would also add previous experience) is hard to argue with. He did talk up Alireza's chance of a good tournament but not enough to win.

Of the three Indians he rated Gukesh as the least stable and his potential score could be anywhere from +2 to -5.

Anand appears to have very similar views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0RhF8MOYz4
https://twitter.com/ChessbaseIndia/stat ... 27/photo/1

[Paul Cooksey]

I listened to perpetual chess's preview podcast which I enjoyed. Rafael Leitao gave mostly similar assessments.

Caruana favourite, Nepo and Firouja good chance, Gukesh, Pragg and Vidit outsiders, and Abasov a very long shot seems to be generally agreed. The point of most difference seems to be Nakamura who varies from the 2nd to 4th on various predictions.

I think I'd probably have Nakamura at the lower end of my prediction. Stylistically he seems a very solid player now. I am more confident he will be in the top half than Nepo or Firouja, but less optimistic he will have the 2850+ performance needed to win than them.

The candidates has been a highlight for me for many years despite FIDEs best attempts to fumble things. Even more so this year with the winner clear favourite to become champion, which is unusual.

I'll probably start with the Anand commentary now chess24 exists in name only.

[Nick Burrows]

Nakamuras time to shine.

[Mick Norris]

Who The Stats Say Will Be The Next World Championship Challenger

In addition to the stats, four grandmasters have graciously offered their thoughts on the favorites, underdogs, and everyone in between: commentators extraordinaire GM David Howell and GM Robert Hess, 12th women's world champion GM Alexandra Kosteniuk, and Chess.com resident GM Rafael Leitao.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I think that one difficulty is that while Caruana is probably the strongest and Nepo the best in modern history in the candidates', there is also the feeling that they already peaked and perhaps that they already failed to grab their best chance of the title. Thinking along these lines really leaves no clear favourite, but I don't think we should ignore Firouzja's evident determination to play and we should remember the success of the previous person to qualify by rating; and if the question is really whether he has matured enough and will not play bullet in the midnight hours, perhaps he does have a chance. Pragganandhaa looks like the strongest/most stable/tenacious of the Indians and will, I think, likely finish in the top half.

One thing which might be debated is whether the winner really will simply beat Ding. Undoubtedly the challenger will have unusually good chances to become champion. But Ding's survival against Nepo - and against his own health problems and lack of opening preparation - was more than a little heroic, and perhaps, when the time comes, there will be more heroics left within him.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Ding certainly seems to be playing a bit better in his latest tournament (even if it is all draws so far!)

[LawrenceCooper]

Commentary options include:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br9DRkQkCr0 FIDE coverage with Anand & Krush

https://www.youtube.com/Chess24/live chess24 with Hess, Howell & Judit Polgar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbtSoU_Q5k8 chess.com Women's Candidates Jovanka & Korley/Judit/Hess/Naroditsky/Canty/Rensch

https://www.twitch.tv/lichessdotorg: Sukandar & Rosen/Sadler/Unuk

[Mick Norris]

TWIC

The FIDE Candidates tournament takes place in The Great Hall in Toronto, Canada. Round 1 is on Thursday 4th April and the final Round is Sunday 21st April with tie-breaks on the 22nd April if required. Play starts at 14:30 local time which is 19:30 BST.

Round 1
Fabiano Caruana - Hikaru Nakamura
Nijat Abasov - Ian Nepomniachtchi
Alireza Firouzja - Praggnanandhaa R
Gukesh D - Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

[Jonathan Rogers]

Much as it seems right that the USA/Canada should host their share of major events, it is obviously better for West Europeans wishing to follow them live for them to be held in the East. The worst example must have been Karjakin v Carlsen in 2016 when the style of the players aggravated the late starting time. Nigel Short announced that he was going to bed while the first game was in progress and that, for me, set the tone for much of the event; I went to bed during game eight and woke up to the shock of Karjakin having won - though I seem to recall staying the distance when Carlsen equalised in game 10.

[Graham Borrowdale]

7.30pm UK time seems like a good time for UK viewers who work during the day. It will be good to watch some rounds live, rather than sneaking a look or trying to catch up in the evening.

[Nick Burrows]

Commentary options include:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br9DRkQkCr0 FIDE coverage with Anand & Krush

https://www.youtube.com/Chess24/live chess24 with Hess, Howell & Judit Polgar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbtSoU_Q5k8 chess.com Women's Candidates Jovanka & Korley/Judit/Hess/Naroditsky/Canty/Rensch

https://twitter.com/search?q=lichess&src=typed_query: LiChess Sukandar & Rosen/Sadler/Unuk

Thanks for the links Lawrence!

[Matthew Turner]

Seems like a really interesting first round. Any non-American that loses almost seems out of contention already! Anyone who wins will surely take a lot of confidence out of it and suddenly becomes a favourite! I cannot decide whether this will lead to a lot of draws or not?
So, I'll predict 4 draws and hope I'm wrong

[LawrenceCooper]

Commentary options include:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br9DRkQkCr0 FIDE coverage with Anand & Krush

https://www.youtube.com/Chess24/live chess24 with Hess, Howell & Judit Polgar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbtSoU_Q5k8 chess.com Women's Candidates Jovanka & Korley/Judit/Hess/Naroditsky/Canty/Rensch

https://twitter.com/search?q=lichess&src=typed_query: LiChess Sukandar & Rosen/Sadler/Unuk

Thanks for the links Lawrence!

https://kick.com/gmhikaru has Fiona Steil-Antoni and Jon Ludvig Hammer.