Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

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Mick Norris
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Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Thu May 12, 2022 12:16 pm

TWIC
This is an 8 player 14 round event. For the first time since the Candidates tournaments returned there will be rapid and tie-breaks among players tied for first. Tie-break coefficients were used in the past - although there were provisions for a tie-break match the conditions needed for them to happen meant they were all but impossible. Players: Ian Nepomniachtchi, Teimour Radjabov, Jan-Krzysztof Duda, Alireza Firouzja, Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Richard Rapport, and Ding Liren.
Regulations can be downloaded

Tiebreak

Pairings
Round 1, June 17

Duda – Rapport
Ding Liren – Nepomniachtchi
Caruana – Nakamura
Radjabov – Firouzja
Venue with photos
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Mick Norris
Posts: 9264
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Fri May 13, 2022 9:43 am

What do the numbers say?
I looked at all Candidate Tournaments since 2013, when Carlsen qualified for the championship, to build the statistical models. Previous events had 14 rounds and an average rating of 2770-2787. I logged birth year, peak rating, the peak year, points off of peak, and years off of peak. For peak ratings, I only looked before that event date. All of these factors were in consideration for a statistical model to predict performance rating. The most important predictors were:

Current rating at the event
Peak rating before the event
Age
Years away from their peak rating
Factors 3 and 4 were not statistically significant and only affected projected performance ratings by about one Elo point. Both current and peak ratings had a positive association with predicted performance ratings
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Mick Norris
Posts: 9264
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Wed May 18, 2022 7:09 pm

chess.com updated Meet the Candidates
Games begin on June 17!
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Mick Norris
Posts: 9264
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Mick Norris » Sat May 21, 2022 7:57 am

chess24 interview with Ding
Asked whether he has officially been invited to the Candidates, Ding said: "Yes, I am applying for the visa and buying the tickets now, but it's not 100 per cent sure. If Karjakin has applied for CAS then I may lose the spot."
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

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Matt Mackenzie
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Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat May 21, 2022 6:09 pm

How late can Karjakin leave it to do that, then?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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