Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
John Swain
Posts: 412
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:35 pm
Location: Nottingham

Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by John Swain » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:03 pm

Drag Sudar has investigated the Nottinghamshire League, comparing the aborted 2019-20 season with what's happening at the moment. New players, perhaps inspired by The Queen's Gambit or playing online, are very welcome, but their numbers haven't compensated for those who haven't returned to competitive play. Nottinghamshire may be atypical; it would be interesting to compare the experience of other evening leagues.

"In the 2019-20 season 262 people played in the league. Of those only 112 have played this season, 42.75%. The club hit the hardest is Long Eaton who haven’t entered a team. The figures for the rest are:

Mansfield 6/7, Beeston 6/8, Gambit 14/24, RB 10/19, Newark 8/16, Grantham 12/26, Ashfield 10/22, WN 13/31, Nomads 8/20, WB 14/35, Central 5/13 and Uni 6/27.

On the positive side, clubs have 62 extra players, almost all brand new to Notts Chess:

Uni 15, Beeston 11 (!), Nomads 7, WN 6, RB 5, Central 5, Gambit 5, WB 4, Ashfield 2, Grantham 2, Mansfield 0, Newark 0."

Source: http://gambitchess.org.uk/uncategorized ... to-2021-22

MartinCarpenter
Posts: 3041
Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:10 pm

I haven't run the precise numbers but that ratio of people playing seems broadly consistent for the Northern leagues that I've seen (and 4NCL 3N.). It does vary somewhat per club.

Of course given the really quite negative Covid news, and the looming flu etc to join in, I wouldn't be surprised to see this falling this notably over the next month or two, regardless of what the Government does/doesn't do in a formal sense.
(I played one game in October, but wouldn't dream of playing FtF chess currently.).

J T Melsom
Posts: 1294
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:12 pm

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by J T Melsom » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:22 pm

Four new members all attending regularly, club secretary the only notable absence at present, so membership numbers healthier than forecast, allowing for our usual turnover. I have my first player drop out due to Omicron. The change in treatment of foreign travel means he can't now play on the day of his return from Provence, frustrating because he had already tweaked the holiday dates to allow his participation.

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5191
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm

People really shouldn't jump to conclusions about Omicron being a SCARY NEW VARIANT despite much of the media coverage.

Tentative so far, but some evidence is emerging it is less serious than Delta.

(and if so, this would be consistent with how viruses usually - even if not always - develop)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

MartinCarpenter
Posts: 3041
Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:37 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
People really shouldn't jump to conclusions about Omicron being a SCARY NEW VARIANT despite much of the media coverage.

Tentative so far, but some evidence is emerging it is less serious than Delta.

(and if so, this would be consistent with how viruses usually - even if not always - develop)
No terror needed sadly. Even current case rates have been trending unsustainable for a month or so and flu to add. We only need it to be mildly more infectious (solid reasons to think that) and/or dodge a bit of the vaccine protection (entirely possible) and we'll find ourselves in a collective mess very quickly.

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5191
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:48 pm

The becoming less virulent surely overrides that if true, though.

Its hospitalisations and deaths that really count, not people feeling poorly for a bit. Which quite often happened in winters before Covid.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

J T Melsom
Posts: 1294
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:12 pm

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by J T Melsom » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:58 pm

I take the point that we don't know how serious the new variant is, but until it was found government policy rightly or wrongly was to live with Delta, so it is the potential threat of Omicron that has prompted the changes in the short term. I do wish we could also move away from purely measuring deaths, long COVID seems unpleasant enough and is now overly prevalent in the community.

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5191
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:44 pm

Long Covid is indeed unpleasant, but its actual prevalence remains very much disputed.

No fan of this government, but the "better safe than sorry" stance they have taken over Omicron was fully justified until we know more. If it *does* turn out to be relatively mild, however, I hope those in the chess community as elsewhere will draw the appropriate conclusions.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

User avatar
John Upham
Posts: 7162
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Cove, Hampshire, England.
Contact:

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by John Upham » Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:11 pm

J T Melsom wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:58 pm
overly prevalent in the community.
I'm not sure I understand what this means precisely.

ps I understand each of the five words used.
British Chess News : britishchessnews.com
Twitter: @BritishChess
Facebook: facebook.com/groups/britishchess :D

J T Melsom
Posts: 1294
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:12 pm

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by J T Melsom » Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:56 pm

i saw a report suggesting up to a million sufferers with long COVID. That sounded like a lot of people to me, though I accept those figures like so many others in this debate are disputed. That ball-park figure of people surviving COVID but with an impaired future can't or shouldn't be dismissed in determining health policy.

User avatar
Stephen Westmoreland
Posts: 447
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:55 pm
Location: Holmfirth

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:30 pm

I am seeing increased numbers locally and great enthusiasm. Never had it so easy, raising teams.
HDCA President

Angus French
Posts: 2149
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Contact:

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Angus French » Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:40 pm

J T Melsom wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:56 pm
i saw a report suggesting up to a million sufferers with long COVID. That sounded like a lot of people to me, though I accept those figures like so many others in this debate are disputed. That ball-park figure of people surviving COVID but with an impaired future can't or shouldn't be dismissed in determining health policy.
The results of the latest ONS monthly survey into the prevalence of Long COVID were published today and are available here. On 31 October an estimated 1.2 million people living in the UK were experiencing Long COVID at 4 or more weeks after a probable or confirmed infection. An estimated 862,000 people had symptoms 12 weeks or more after a probable or confirmed infection and an estimated 439,000 people had symptoms a year or more after a probable or confirmed infection. Symptoms were self-reported by 341,882 respondents.

These seem to me like very serious numbers indeed.

Matt, you say the prevalence of Long COVID is "very much disputed" - can you clarify who exactly is doing the disputing and on what grounds?

Angus French
Posts: 2149
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Contact:

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Angus French » Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:04 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
People really shouldn't jump to conclusions about Omicron being a SCARY NEW VARIANT despite much of the media coverage.

Tentative so far, but some evidence is emerging it is less serious than Delta.

(and if so, this would be consistent with how viruses usually - even if not always - develop)
What evidence is there that Omicron is less serious than Delta? As I understand it, scientists are concerned that Omicron may be more transmissible and have greater immunity escape (either from previous infection or from vaccination). I don't think it's yet known whether Omicron causes more severe illness or not. What is known is that Omicron has a significant number of mutations and that cases are spreading extremely quickly in South Africa. Hospital admissions are also increasing fast. FT charts here.

Andrew Zigmond
Posts: 2073
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:23 pm
Location: Harrogate

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by Andrew Zigmond » Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:22 am

The pattern I'm seeing is that numbers are slightly down, probably due to understandable caution at the start of the season. However there is an influx of new players (albeit in pockets rather than across the board - I'll come to why in as moment) and put bluntly, many players who have dropped out over the pandemic are those who would likely have packed it in over the next few years anyway.

Where the discrepancy is growing is between those clubs who are working to welcome new members with an attractive package and those that either haven't restarted or just want to continue as before.
Controller - Yorkshire League
Chairman - Harrogate Chess Club
All views expressed entirely my own

MartinCarpenter
Posts: 3041
Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: Current OTB participation in evening leagues compared with pre-pandemic level

Post by MartinCarpenter » Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:16 am

Angus French wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:04 pm
Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
People really shouldn't jump to conclusions about Omicron being a SCARY NEW VARIANT despite much of the media coverage.

Tentative so far, but some evidence is emerging it is less serious than Delta.

(and if so, this would be consistent with how viruses usually - even if not always - develop)
What evidence is there that Omicron is less serious than Delta? As I understand it, scientists are concerned that Omicron may be more transmissible and have greater immunity escape (either from previous infection or from vaccination). I don't think it's yet known whether Omicron causes more severe illness or not. What is known is that Omicron has a significant number of mutations and that cases are spreading extremely quickly in South Africa. Hospital admissions are also increasing fast. FT charts here.
Part of it might be that there's thought to be a lot of reinfections from people who've already had delta in SA. Those might well be less serious on average than delta originally was, but in the short term for the UK its effectively an sizeable 'extra' vulnerable population, so still a bunch of extra cases/hospital etc :(

I don't get the impression they'll have good data for a while.

Post Reply