(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
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Chris Goodall
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Chris Goodall » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:50 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:46 pm
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:53 pm
Are there any actual cases anywhere (in the UK) where this has come up so far? This is not at all unique to chess tournaments and, if it is going to happen, I imagine someone suing semi-broke chess organisers is not going to be the first example.
Nail on head. The idea is of course completely stupid.
Then I am not sure I understand your position. You find it obvious that events would need to be cancelled if the government was saying "this will kill people and it will be your fault", even if you disagreed. But you find it completely stupid that there would be consequences for you for not cancelling the events.
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Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:43 pm

The Welsh First Minister said something interesting today;

"If you've been infected previously, it may be it is a less severe attack," he says.
"If you've never had coronavirus and you get Omicron, the evidence is it's probably just as severe as any other form would be."

I wonder if this goes some way to explaining why South Africa hasn’t been overrun. The majority of the population did catch the Delta variant previously. In the UK is it around 20% have had one of the variants? A much lower proportion than South Africa.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:57 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:43 pm
The Welsh First Minister said something interesting today;

"If you've been infected previously, it may be it is a less severe attack," he says.
"If you've never had coronavirus and you get Omicron, the evidence is it's probably just as severe as any other form would be."

I wonder if this goes some way to explaining why South Africa hasn’t been overrun. The majority of the population did catch the Delta variant previously. In the UK is it around 20% have had one of the variants? A much lower proportion than South Africa.
Quite possibly, yes. You also have to remember that we have huge vaccination protection against Delta already in our population, which this definitely reduces a bit.

I'm not sure if they'll ever really be able to tell the differing effects apart 'properly'.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:06 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:57 pm
Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:43 pm
The Welsh First Minister said something interesting today;

"If you've been infected previously, it may be it is a less severe attack," he says.
"If you've never had coronavirus and you get Omicron, the evidence is it's probably just as severe as any other form would be."

I wonder if this goes some way to explaining why South Africa hasn’t been overrun. The majority of the population did catch the Delta variant previously. In the UK is it around 20% have had one of the variants? A much lower proportion than South Africa.
Quite possibly, yes. You also have to remember that we have huge vaccination protection against Delta already in our population, which this definitely reduces a bit.

I'm not sure if they'll ever really be able to tell the differing effects apart 'properly'.
It does appear due to leaks the variant will officially be labelled as milder tomorrow because of the boasters and people previously being infected or maybe because it’s actually milder anyway. Although hospitalisations and deaths are still expected to surge due to the vast number of infections. It sounds as if for those severely effected and in hospital your odds are no better sadly than with previous variants. You would be at high risk of dying.

NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:23 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:06 pm
because of the boasters
I suppose our PM has been called worse.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by David Sedgwick » Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:04 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:23 pm
I suppose our PM has been called worse.
Indeed he has, including by you.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:14 pm

https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/exclu ... 979_Neiujo

"NHS leaders have been told to make plans for temporary ‘field hospitals’ in hospital car parks and to review the capacity of their mortuaries in readiness for the expected surge of covid patients over the next five weeks"

Just as well they pulled down the Nightingales, eh?

You couldn't make it up.
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Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:39 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:14 pm
https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/exclu ... 979_Neiujo

"NHS leaders have been told to make plans for temporary ‘field hospitals’ in hospital car parks and to review the capacity of their mortuaries in readiness for the expected surge of covid patients over the next five weeks"

Just as well they pulled down the Nightingales, eh?

You couldn't make it up.
The Sky workups from the London hospitalisations have it basically tracking a similar course to the Kent variant, which was a lot. Hopefully it breaks off from that curve at some point soon.

Roger Lancaster
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger Lancaster » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:04 am

Jacques Parry wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:07 am
Chris Goodall wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:12 pm
If no-one knows what precautions are sensible, is it reasonable to think that a judge would be looking at, for example, whether the advice "you should continue to wear a mask" was in force at the time?
I'm sure it would be highly relevant whether government guidance was observed, yes. That includes guidance (if there is any) about whether such events should take place at all.
Roger Lancaster wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:41 pm
Yes, the point I was trying to make (and Jacques has kindly confirmed this) was that chess organisers were far from being in a unique position and, as far as I could see, were in a similar situation to (for example) the manager of a high street shop. I think I'd just differ from Jacques slightly in considering it's a tort issue rather than a question of contract law - although that wouldn't make me feel any happier if I were the person being sued.
I didn't say whether the basis of liability would be tortious or contractual: liability for negligence could be either. But I don't believe it affects the position either way.

I agree that chess organisers are unlikely to be sued, and even less likely to be successfully sued. But they shouldn't suppose that saying "come at your own risk" eliminates the possibility.
Entirely agree. Apologies to Jacques if I misrepresented him.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Chris Goodall » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:04 am

In light of the number of posts here claiming "no evidence" for this or that:

The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag

(tl;dr: there is no evidence for anything, until there is)
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Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:28 am

I gather the London League is moving their January fixtures to June
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David Gilbert
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by David Gilbert » Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:48 am

Indeed it has. The League may have jumped the gun or it could turn out to be a very sensible action. Some other Leagues in London and the South East are considering similar steps, but they're delaying a decision for another week at least when they hope there’ll be better Omicron data and we're clearer about the Government's intentions on any new restrictions.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:15 pm

David Gilbert wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:48 am
Indeed it has. The League may have jumped the gun or it could turn out to be a very sensible action.
Organisations such as the 4NCL, which need to make decisions a month in advance, really have no choice. The LCL may well be at least somewhat in this positions. If a league is in the more fortunate position of being able to take decisions week by week, there is no reason not to do so.

Given the rate at which this latest thing is blasting through London, it could be in our rear view mirror in two or three weeks. At which point, let's get straight back to playing chess.

This does of course make the assumption that there is a reason to stop socialising anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone who is able to get Omicron ( despite vaccinations, natural antibodies, anything else we don't know about ) will get it, although in many cases the only way they will know is by being tested. Preventing this from happening may be both an already lost cause and pointless.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:45 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:15 pm
David Gilbert wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:48 am
Indeed it has. The League may have jumped the gun or it could turn out to be a very sensible action.
Organisations such as the 4NCL, which need to make decisions a month in advance, really have no choice. The LCL may well be at least somewhat in this positions. If a league is in the more fortunate position of being able to take decisions week by week, there is no reason not to do so.

Given the rate at which this latest thing is blasting through London, it could be in our rear view mirror in two or three weeks. At which point, let's get straight back to playing chess.

This does of course make the assumption that there is a reason to stop socialising anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone who is able to get Omicron ( despite vaccinations, natural antibodies, anything else we don't know about ) will get it, although in many cases the only way they will know is by being tested. Preventing this from happening may be both an already lost cause and pointless.
It looks like we get the straight answer finally on Monday 27th as to what restrictions the government have chosen. But I think you’re right, ONS estimated 1 in 20 had it in London last week, and it’s presumably even higher now. I’d guess that picture has to spread countrywide before it eases off. I do recall post-Christmas with the Kent variant was complete carnage, so I’d guess you can write off January as a mess at this point.

Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:49 pm

According to the Covid Zoe app, the number of contributors in London who report new symptoms reached a daily figure of over 5% around December 14, but has dropped below 4% now; by contrast, here in the North West, the figures were 3% and are nearly that now

I think Nick is right that as Omicron hit London first, it may be peaking, and OTB chess could easily be ok by the end of January if not before; it may be nearer end February elsewhere

We decided in Manchester in September to have a short Autumn OTB season, now finished with a handful of matches not played, then go Online for January/February (and will be into March) to avoid the worst of the winter from a travelling viewpoint, then back OTB for March/April/May; my guess is that will be ok
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