(Chess) Life Returning To Normal
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
There is usually local / national guidance released after announcements. That will inform on OTB chess and if we can sort illicit underground chess clubs out. Which sounds fun.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
Of course. But how much less dangerous do you think it is going to be? 2 fold? Well, wait 2-3 days and you've caught up in terms of hospitalisations while still speeding ahead.Matt Mackenzie wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:02 pmBut, again - being "infectious" and just giving you similar to a bad cold isn't the most important thing and never was. Deaths and hospitalisations should be the sole criteria for lockdowns, as the original justification (remember that?) was "we cant let the NHS be overwhelmed".
Obviously there's a comfort in the sense that it should burn through the vulnerable population quite fast, but it could do huge damage while doing so. We've still got rather too many people unvaccinated to be at all happy.
Even if it has by some (incredibly unlikely) miracle actually turned 'harmless' then we'll very likely need to impose some extra restrictions to at least slow it down a bit, because we won't know that for sure until its much too late.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
I was naïve enough to believe that "flatten the curve" should be taken in its mathematical sense. Make the curve less pointy, but with a fatter tail.Matt Mackenzie wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:02 pmBut, again - being "infectious" and just giving you similar to a bad cold isn't the most important thing and never was. Deaths and hospitalisations should be the sole criteria for lockdowns, as the original justification (remember that?) was "we cant let the NHS be overwhelmed".
The journo-political complex quickly decided that it actually meant "reduce the area under the curve". Take people who would have died of CoViD, and have them die of something less newsworthy instead.
To me that's a much more dubious goal, especially when you're making no effort to quantify the additional deaths from all other causes. It's akin to dropping the speed limit to 10mph, waiting for some people not to die in car accidents, and then putting it back up to 70mph.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
The effort is being made, for instance https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and- ... ty-monitorChris Goodall wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:33 pm
......
To me that's a much more dubious goal, especially when you're making no effort to quantify the additional deaths from all other causes....
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
There's also the material published by the Office for National StatisticsBrian Valentine wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:55 pm
The effort is being made, for instance https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and- ... ty-monitor
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ges/deaths
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-omic ... 00289.htmlNickFaulks wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:38 amAll of the evidence so far is that you get the sniffles for a few days and emerge with a load of natural antibodies. That is the way Nature has handled these thing for millions of years and it's good enough for me.MartinCarpenter wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:47 am2-3 days doubling time with the current reduced rates of mixing, my goodness.
The sooner this becomes the dominant variant, the better.
Well for the 25,000 to 75,000 people it might not be such cheery news. I think 75,000 would equate roughly to 500 deaths a day.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
As usual, words like "might" and "could" and "up to" are doing a fair bit of work here.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
The same could be said of the words "All the evidence".
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59460252
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59460252
So the moral is to make sure you are vaccinated, if all you want are a few sniffles.What are the symptoms of Omicron?
So far, in South Africa, most people infected are young and their symptoms have been mild.
There is some suggestion that the variant could be causing some slightly different symptoms to Delta - including aches and pains, and no loss of taste or smell - but it's too early to say for certain.
Hospitals in South Africa are seeing more people admitted with more serious symptoms - but many are unvaccinated or have had only one dose. It will take a few more weeks to work out if deaths are increasing too.
In the UK, where large numbers of people are protected with two or three doses of a Covid vaccine, some scientists say Omicron could be much milder and have less of an impact.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
If the evidence is that a variant is serious, they say the country must be locked down because it is serious.Phil Neatherway wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:15 amThe same could be said of the words "All the evidence".
If the evidence is that it is mild, they say the country must be locked down because the evidence might change.
Can someone remind me why we look at evidence?
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
Yes, the "we have to stay locked down forever because some devastating new variant MIGHT emerge" line was always the silliest.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
On a positive note I am pleased to report that we had the highest attendance last Monday at Poulton-le-Fylde Chess Club since we have reopened.
15 people turned up for club games.
This Monday Poulton 2 are at home to Lytham 2 in the Blackpool & Fylde Chess League.
15 people turned up for club games.
This Monday Poulton 2 are at home to Lytham 2 in the Blackpool & Fylde Chess League.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
Who is the "they" and where are they saying what they're saying?NickFaulks wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:27 amIf the evidence is that a variant is serious, they say the country must be locked down because it is serious.Phil Neatherway wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:15 amThe same could be said of the words "All the evidence".
If the evidence is that it is mild, they say the country must be locked down because the evidence might change.
Can someone remind me why we look at evidence?
I haven't seen people demand a lockdown but I have seen people call for more serious measures - to protect against the possibilities of more serious illness (including Long COVID) and death and against the NHS being further overwhelmed and a lockdown. For example, this statement from Independent SAGE.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
It would seem fairly likely we’ll be looking at a raft of stricter measures come next weekend. Whether that’s enough to knock out chess events for the immediate future, who knows?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ak-reveals
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ak-reveals
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
The Government are looking at boosters, with a mass drive into the New Year. It does appear a complete mess of mixed messages though. Each week brings a raft of new measures.
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
I suspect Boris will drop the motherlode of new covid restrictions in a Thursday press conference to blot out the bad news day that’s coming when the safe Tory seat in North Shropshire goes to the Lib Dem’s in the by-election.Stephen Westmoreland wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 8:16 pmThe Government are looking at boosters, with a mass drive into the New Year. It does appear a complete mess of mixed messages though. Each week brings a raft of new measures.