(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

[Nick Grey]

On phase 2 All children’s activities, indoor parent & child groups (up to 15 parents). a big If to be met by No's government.
These may not happen in statutory sector in some areas - younger workers and parents not vaccinated.
social distancing in place and children in school. Maybe summer end of term.

[David Robertson]

The harbinger of doom! Mind you the 1918/19 Spanish 'Flu pandemic came in three waves, the second the most virulent by far and the third the least. It returned in a much milder form in 1920 with only a handful of deaths. Of course, in those times there was no vaccine, but according to the results pages from the local press, chess continued alongside darts, skittles and bagatelle. It seems these activities were centred on a network of local working mens clubs which appear to have been pulling pints as usual. Maybe we'll get away with it - 50p that it goes ahead Professor?

Ha! A "harbinger of doom", he calls me. I might defer to expertise here, were not it a voice from a smoking ruin. As it stands, I'd be happy to pay 50p and be wrong. But I've not been wrong here yet in every call I've made on the matter in just over a year. Pessimism is a condition of my trade; it follows from scepticism, from inspecting uncertainty and the unknown.

I don't think we're through this yet by a long measure. A vaccine helps hugely. But only so much with an 'unstable' mutating coronavirus. Vaccine shots will need to be renewed, flu-style. That's a prodigious undertaking. The NHS has demonstrated colossal efficiency in getting pretty much everyone 60+ (as I write) vaccinated. But come the Autumn, absent new information, we start again. Hard to see, from where we stand now, that a further wave won't crash upon us. A lesser wave I hope, but that's the observed pandemic pattern.

Hence, I remain pessimistic about a 'return to normal' (for chess, that is) anytime before mid-2022. Things may change for the better. I hope so. But first, we need evidence

[Mick Norris]

Yes, and GPs need to decide today whether or not to continue with their part of the vaccination program for the u50s; given they've been told to fully resume pre-pandemic services, this means at least that those practices converted to vaccination centres will revert to being GP surgeries, and probably that most GP practices will opt out, as their staff can't be in 2 places at once

The bigger vaccination centres are great, but some people won't feel able to travel to them; we've also got the 2nd jabs to give to the 25m of us who have already been vaccinated

Presumably at some point, St Helens Rugby League Stadium, the Science Museum, the Etihad Tennis Centre and Blackburn Cathedral will return to their original uses too

I'm sure the NHS will find a way, but not easy to do

[Kevin Thurlow]

"The bigger vaccination centres are great, but some people won't feel able to travel to them; we've also got the 2nd jabs to give to the 25m of us who have already been vaccinated"

Oddly, when I booked online, the first jab was at a little community centre formerly the radio room at an ex-RAF base (about 30 minutes drive away), but the second one is scheduled at Bath and West showground (about an hour away). Others in the house have gone to a nearby health centre.

I think a local vet volunteered their premises, but that might have scared the recipients off!

[Stewart Reuben]

I received a call about my second jab of the Pfizer vaccine today. It will take place Friday 26 March. I felt no effect from the first dose.
Hasting is receiving a little support from FIDE. It is more complex than an British only event.
David Robertson presumably would advise not holding it this year, due to start 8 or 29 December.
Any advice?

[Matt Bridgeman]

I received a call about my second jab of the Pfizer vaccine today. It will take place Friday 26 March. I felt no effect from the first dose.
Hasting is receiving a little support from FIDE. It is more complex than an British only event.
David Robertson presumably would advise not holding it this year, due to start 8 or 29 December.
Any advice?

Anecdotally I’ve heard NHS workers reporting the second dose of the Pfizer might generate a few more mild side effects, more in tune with how some people felt after one dose of the AstraZeneca. Are you saying Hastings may start on the 8th December? I’d imagine that would effect junior entries, as it’s tougher to justify such a length of time off school just before the Christmas holidays.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Getting my first jab a week tomorrow

[Tim Spanton]

28 or 29

[Roger de Coverly]

Hasting is receiving a little support from FIDE. It is more complex than an British only event.

FIDE were proposing to repeat their World Championship Swiss qualifier in the Isle of Man in autumn. The Isle of Man has self-isolated and I don't think has given any statements as to when it will reopen the borders. Most recently it went back into lockdown having imported an outbreak via a Manx based employee of the ferry company.

[David Robertson]

Hasting is receiving a little support from FIDE. It is more complex than an British only event. David Robertson presumably would advise not holding it this year, due to start 8 or 29 December. Any advice?

Yes. It depends on planning horizon and critical path.

If the planning horizon starts now, I'd advise extreme caution in proceeding. Why? Because we lack visibility. If the planning horizon can be pushed to, say October, then matters should be clearer one way or the other. The critical path is how we get from what we know, through what we don't yet know, to where we'd like to be. By October, we should know more about vaccine effectiveness, viral variations, and capacity to respond.

Absent clarity on much of that, and given the particular vulnerability of OTB chess-playing to viral spread and load, those with responsibility for forward planning are in a wholly unenviable position. I can only advise, fwiw, that caution and pessimism are better guides to decisions in these circumstances, at this moment, than evidence-lite optimism or guesswork. Prospects for Hastings? As of now, I'd say poor

[David Sedgwick]

Are you saying Hastings may start on the 8th December?

I can confirm that that was a typo for 28th December. If the Congress can take place, it will start on 28th or 29th December.

[David Sedgwick]

I might defer to expertise here, were not it a voice from a smoking ruin.

It's true that one never knows what to expect next in this pandemic, but you becoming a Dominic Cummings supporter was not high on my list.

[David Sedgwick]

FIDE were proposing to repeat their World Championship Swiss qualifier in the Isle of Man in autumn. The Isle of Man has self-isolated and I don't think has given any statements as to when it will reopen the borders. Most recently it went back into lockdown having imported an outbreak via a Manx based employee of the ferry company.

For once you are not up to date with the news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe ... n-56333593.

The FIDE Grand Swiss is scheduled to take place from 25th October to 8th November. I haven't spoken to anyone on the island for a while, but as things stand I would put the chances of the event going ahead on those dates at about 50-50.

[David Williams]

In the past if, for example, it became apparent that there was going to be a flu epidemic, nothing much changed. People carried on as normal, lots of people got it, 20,000 died (0.03% of the population). You'd shake hands with a coughing stranger before and after a game and take his pieces without a care in the world.

In the future we won't go into full lockdown, but it's hard to imagine the Government would do nothing. Even if they don't, masks and social distancing would become commonplace again. And many people will feel it perfectly rational not to want to sit facing someone a metre away in a crowded room for three or four hours.

[Nick Burrows]

Even if they don't, masks and social distancing would become commonplace again.

Do you think there will be a period where they are not commonplace?