Who will win in Tromso?

[Paolo Casaschi]

With the Tromso Olympiad starting in a couple of days, why not playing a prediction game?
Pick from the list below the three teams you think will finish in the top three places of the open tournament (1).

The poll is open for a week and you can change your prediction, so you are allowed to change your mind after the first few rounds.

The forum software only allows for offering 15 options, so I listed in alphabetical order the top 14 teams according to rating (from the official website) and added the usual "other" option.

No prizes, only your personal satisfaction.

Let's see how good are the forum users to predict the winners!

Notes:
(1) for the sake of clarity, the open tournament is the one that is not the women's tournament.

[Matthew Webb]

Yorkshire Chess are running a free Fantasy Chess Olympiad competition!

Enter here

Rules and Prizes can all be found on the website.

Enjoy

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Am quite surprised that Norway are in the top 14. Their board one helps, but still. I would go and look up the order those 14 are in, but can't be bothered right now. Interesting that Israel and Cuba are in the top 14 as well.

[MartinCarpenter]

Based on 4 board averages which helps Norway rather a lot! Cuba a bit too.

Israel seem to have Sutovsky on board 5 so you'd expect them to do quite nicely Very similar sort of strength profile to England and the Dutch.

Russia do look awfully strong. 50 pts/board on anyone else and much the highest rated 5th board too. Their recent history isn't encouraging of course.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I see the eternal optimists are voting for England.

[Lewis Martin]

I see the eternal optimists are voting for England.

For a medal, why not? Stranger things have happened than the ninth seed getting a bronze medal.

[Carl Hibbard]

Russia, Armenia, USA is my selection.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I see the eternal optimists are voting for England.

For a medal, why not? Stranger things have happened than the ninth seed getting a bronze medal.

I was waiting for Jonathan Rogers to comment on this (he has in the past). Maybe he is waiting for more voting to take place.

[Roger de Coverly]

Russia, Armenia, USA is my selection.

Nakamura is apparently stuck in Florida because of a cancelled flight and won't get there until round 3.

He complains about Olympiads being held in places poorly served by flight connections. He has a point with the next Olympiad being in Baku and the one after that in Georgia or South Africa. Arguably there was a long run of Olympiads in well connected destinations from 2000 to 2012, with Khanty in 2010 the only exception.

https://twitter.com/search?q=gmhikaru

[Jonathan Rogers]

I see the eternal optimists are voting for England.

For a medal, why not? Stranger things have happened than the ninth seed getting a bronze medal.

I was waiting for Jonathan Rogers to comment on this (he has in the past). Maybe he is waiting for more voting to take place.

I've said enough on this in the past - though the presence of Sadler in the team is welcome and gives me some optimism that we might justify our seeding this time, or at least come close.

Indeed, I've even put Sadler, on board five, in my fantasy team in the YCA competition. Wot a patriot! (Of course the best pick would have been the board five of some lowly rated country who effectively put their best palyers in reverse order for tactical reasons, but I couldn't be bothered to work out which countries have apparently done this and I stuck with the more familiar names).

[Stewart Reuben]

Jonathan Rogers >the board five of some lowly rated country who effectively put their best players in reverse order for tactical reasons<

I wonder if that is still true. The idea used to be to try to pick up a board prize for highest score. But now they use TPR and weaker teams never get a look in.

[Lewis Martin]

Jonathan Rogers >the board five of some lowly rated country who effectively put their best players in reverse order for tactical reasons<

I wonder if that is still true. The idea used to be to try to pick up a board prize for highest score. But now they use TPR and weaker teams never get a look in.

It isn't impossible for a strong board 5 of a weaker team to get a high TPR to match those in stronger teams, however you need to score very highly for this to occur (i.e. 100% in some cases).

Incidentally, is it just me, or is anyone else intrigued by Hungary's board order? Effectively, they could have a regular team line-up like this:

Almasi
Balogh
Leko
Rapport

though one suspects Polgar will feature more often than Balogh. In which case it is:

Almasi
Leko
Polgar
Rapport


Just saying as there can't be many teams that have a 2700 on bottom board, despite him being the second strongest/highest rated (however you want to look at it) player and even Leko isn't on board 1.

France and Hungary are dark horses for the title in my opinion, though of course, Russia are the overwhelming favourites. (Despite Armenia's amazing recent record)

[Jonathan Rogers]

Jonathan Rogers >the board five of some lowly rated country who effectively put their best players in reverse order for tactical reasons<

I wonder if that is still true. The idea used to be to try to pick up a board prize for highest score. But now they use TPR and weaker teams never get a look in.

Might just help with the business of winning/drawing more matches? But yes, I suppose it should be less prevalent now.

[Mick Norris]

Incidentally, is it just me, or is anyone else intrigued by Hungary's board order? Effectively, they could have a regular team line-up like this:

Almasi
Balogh
Leko
Rapport

though one suspects Polgar will feature more often than Balogh. In which case it is:

Almasi
Leko
Polgar
Rapport


Just saying as there can't be many teams that have a 2700 on bottom board, despite him being the second strongest/highest rated (however you want to look at it) player and even Leko isn't on board 1.

France and Hungary are dark horses for the title in my opinion, though of course, Russia are the overwhelming favourites. (Despite Armenia's amazing recent record)

For the record, I voted for Hungary as I had seen their player line up and I think that Rapport would be board 5 and potentially score heavily (I also voted for Armenia and Russia, so that's probably sunk the hopes of all 3 teams )

[IM Jack Rudd]

Jonathan Rogers >the board five of some lowly rated country who effectively put their best players in reverse order for tactical reasons<

I wonder if that is still true. The idea used to be to try to pick up a board prize for highest score. But now they use TPR and weaker teams never get a look in.

Might just help with the business of winning/drawing more matches? But yes, I suppose it should be less prevalent now.

It might also help with the business of getting one of your players an FM or CM title.