English Chess Forum

Captains have just received an urgent e-mail asking them to confirm by tomorrow night at the latest if their teams will be playing at the February weekend. The deadline for cancelling the February weekend without financial penalties is Wednesday 12th January.
Currently only 46 out of 83 teams have done so and only 168 out of the 490 bedrooms reserved for 4NCL have been booked.
With the current take up of bedrooms Guaranteed Events are facing a financial hit in the region of 15-20k.

I know this is a very small part of the issue, but Div 3 N is supposed to resume for weekend 3 but miss out weekend 4; I'd have thought moving it from mid-February to end March would make sense

Mick Norris wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:43 pm

I know this is a very small part of the issue, but Div 3 N is supposed to resume for weekend 3 but miss out weekend 4; I'd have thought moving it from mid-February to end March would make sense

It certainly does in the current climate, I guess when they made the decision they thought they were spacing out the season by cancelling weekends 2 and 4.

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:02 pm

Captains have just received an urgent e-mail asking them to confirm by tomorrow night at the latest if their teams will be playing at the February weekend. The deadline for cancelling the February weekend without financial penalties is Wednesday 12th January.
Currently only 46 out of 83 teams have done so and only 168 out of the 490 bedrooms reserved for 4NCL have been booked.
With the current take up of bedrooms Guaranteed Events are facing a financial hit in the region of 15-20k.

To be honest, I can't see why anyone - 4NCL or Guaranteed Events - should be willing to risk taking that financial hit if almost one-half of the match captains can't or won't respond to this latest, or the previous, email.

More likely can't, I would imagine. Getting a bit clearer but still very hard for anyone to project forwards about mid Feb with any confidence right now.

Roger Lancaster wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:09 am

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:02 pm

Captains have just received an urgent e-mail asking them to confirm by tomorrow night at the latest if their teams will be playing at the February weekend. The deadline for cancelling the February weekend without financial penalties is Wednesday 12th January.
Currently only 46 out of 83 teams have done so and only 168 out of the 490 bedrooms reserved for 4NCL have been booked.
With the current take up of bedrooms Guaranteed Events are facing a financial hit in the region of 15-20k.

To be honest, I can't see why anyone - 4NCL or Guaranteed Events - should be willing to risk taking that financial hit if almost one-half of the match captains can't or won't respond to this latest, or the previous, email.

I would certainly feel the same if I was at risk of taking the financial hit myself.

It would have been wiser, though, if the e-mail dated 6/1/22 had given a deadline for responding as the default position with the swiss format is that teams have to confirm their place at a weekend around 9 days before the weekend. It also appears that bedroom take up has been massively over estimated. In the Central division around 135 bedrooms for 15 teams was at least double the realistic uptake so would have been a big issue even without Covid.

Hopefully enough captains reply today in a positive fashion and the season will be able to run its course.

Roger Lancaster wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:09 am

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:02 pm

Captains have just received an urgent e-mail asking them to confirm by tomorrow night at the latest if their teams will be playing at the February weekend. The deadline for cancelling the February weekend without financial penalties is Wednesday 12th January.
Currently only 46 out of 83 teams have done so and only 168 out of the 490 bedrooms reserved for 4NCL have been booked.
With the current take up of bedrooms Guaranteed Events are facing a financial hit in the region of 15-20k.

To be honest, I can't see why anyone - 4NCL or Guaranteed Events - should be willing to risk taking that financial hit if almost one-half of the match captains can't or won't respond to this latest, or the previous, email.

If 4NCL/Guaranteed Events told the hotels that covid meant that the number bedrooms booked was likely to be only a third to a half of that previously expected and asked the hotels whether they'd prefer to reduce the number of rooms accordingly or cancel the whole event, what are the hotels like to choose?

Ian Thompson wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:55 am

Roger Lancaster wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:09 am

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:02 pm

Captains have just received an urgent e-mail asking them to confirm by tomorrow night at the latest if their teams will be playing at the February weekend. The deadline for cancelling the February weekend without financial penalties is Wednesday 12th January.
Currently only 46 out of 83 teams have done so and only 168 out of the 490 bedrooms reserved for 4NCL have been booked.
With the current take up of bedrooms Guaranteed Events are facing a financial hit in the region of 15-20k.

To be honest, I can't see why anyone - 4NCL or Guaranteed Events - should be willing to risk taking that financial hit if almost one-half of the match captains can't or won't respond to this latest, or the previous, email.

If 4NCL/Guaranteed Events told the hotels that covid meant that the number bedrooms booked was likely to be only a third to a half of that previously expected and asked the hotels whether they'd prefer to reduce the number of rooms accordingly or cancel the whole event, what are the hotels like to choose?

Good question although my assumption would be that the "a third to a half" figure varies from one venue to another, in which case one might end up with the situation that some divisions went ahead while others didn't. If nothing else, that would complicate year-end promotion/relegation issues.

MartinCarpenter wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:11 am

More likely can't, I would imagine. Getting a bit clearer but still very hard for anyone to project forwards about mid Feb with any confidence right now.

I'm a 4NCL match captain myself so I know, and everyone else knows, there's a significant element of guesswork involved. A new mutation of the virus might be discovered tomorrow. But how hard is it to say "I'm not at all sure but my best guess, based on today's knowledge, is ...." ?

Roger Lancaster wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:37 am

MartinCarpenter wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:11 am

More likely can't, I would imagine. Getting a bit clearer but still very hard for anyone to project forwards about mid Feb with any confidence right now.

I'm a 4NCL match captain myself so I know, and everyone else knows, there's a significant element of guesswork involved. A new mutation of the virus might be discovered tomorrow. But how hard is it to say "I'm not at all sure but my best guess, based on today's knowledge, is ...." ?

Not very useful for the 4NCL that though They're relying on the projection to stake a lot of their money, so they need a solid 'yes' from enough people to make it look feasible.

I'd be quite surprised if enough people can, we'll see. March should be reasonably safe at least.

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:34 am

It would have been wiser, though, if the e-mail dated 6/1/22 had given a deadline for responding as the default position with the swiss format is that teams have to confirm their place at a weekend around 9 days before the weekend. It also appears that bedroom take up has been massively over estimated. In the Central division around 135 bedrooms for 15 teams was at least double the realistic uptake so would have been a big issue even without Covid.

Lawrence - I'm not privy to the actual finances but surely the 4NCL organisers won't have booked 135 bedrooms for Division 3 Central when, in the vastly improbable event that every player stayed overnight, that could only account for 90 bedrooms. That's not a difficult piece of arithmetic. And, if they booked 135 rooms before realising there would only be 15 teams, there's surely been enough time to negotiate the figure down.

Roger Lancaster wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:12 pm

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:34 am

It would have been wiser, though, if the e-mail dated 6/1/22 had given a deadline for responding as the default position with the swiss format is that teams have to confirm their place at a weekend around 9 days before the weekend. It also appears that bedroom take up has been massively over estimated. In the Central division around 135 bedrooms for 15 teams was at least double the realistic uptake so would have been a big issue even without Covid.

Lawrence - I'm not privy to the actual finances but surely the 4NCL organisers won't have booked 135 bedrooms for Division 3 Central when, in the vastly improbable event that every player stayed overnight, that could only account for 90 bedrooms. That's not a difficult piece of arithmetic. And, if they booked 135 rooms before realising there would only be 15 teams, there's surely been enough time to negotiate the figure down.

Those are the figures quoted by Mike Truran in e-mails to captains and I have no reason not to believe him. Maybe it was the only way to get the venue.

Apologies to Lawrence for seeming to doubt the 135 figure but it seemed appropriate to something like 45 teams when, if one-half of the competitors elected to stay overnight, that might have resulted in 1/2 x 6 x 45 = 135 bedrooms taken. But last time (2019-20) 4NCL took place, there were 50 teams in Divisions 3 South & 4 South combined and 16 in Division 3 North so it seems optimistic to have assumed anything like 135 bedrooms for the new Division 3 Central. Of course, it's easy to say this with benefit of hindsight and in any case it doesn't provide a solution to the problem.

[Edited to correct typo, "135" instead of "45" in third line]

We have now had an update from Mike Truran on behalf of the 4NCL. All four venues will go ahead and further details will follow on masks etc

He also posted a correction to the room allocations. The 135 quoted was actually Central + South so it's 40 and 95 which makes a lot more sense.

LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:28 pm

The 135 quoted was actually Central + South so it's 40 and 95 which makes a lot more sense.

The Maidenhead venue has the advantage (or disadvantage) of being relatively easily accessible from the London area.